Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has managed to evade the fallout of the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s business-side issues for about a year, but the imminent earnings reports for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, scheduled for January 28, 2026, could dramatically change the situation.
The most recent foreboding sign came earlier this month with the release of Tesla’s deliveries report, which demonstrated an underperformance against expectations. Elon Musk’s EV maker, according to the document, shipped 418,227 cars and produced 434,358.
Analysts previously expected 426,000 for the quarter.
Similarly, Tesla’s attempts at expanding into new and large markets have also been mixed, with there only being 227 registrations for the firm’s vehicles in India throughout 2025.
Tesla stock 2026 bear case
Recent reports also indicate that another long-standing reason for concern among TSLA stock investors – Elon Musk possibly having his attention divided among too many different companies – might still be at play.
Specifically, Tesla’s trademark for ‘Cybercab’ – the name chosen for the company’s autonomous taxi vehicle – was suspended late last year. Reportedly, the EV giant was tardy in filing for the trademark, enabling a French beverage firm to beat it to the punch already in 2024.
Another persistent vector for criticism of Tesla also appears to still be relevant: Elon Musk’s penchant for overpromising. Despite, at best, continuously implying that autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots are about to enter serial production and become commercially available, both the ‘Cybercab’ and the ‘Optimus’ android are allegedly still years away.
A possible silver lining for TSLA stock investors, however, might be that Musk announced that the one-time purchase option for Tesla’s existing self-driving system – priced at $9,000 in early 2026 – will no longer be available from February 14. Instead, the EV maker is implementing a subscription model, reportedly priced at $99 per month.
While such a move could be very profitable for the car company, its actual success will only become measurable once the technology sees a mass rollout.
Wall Street forecasts the 2026 Tesla stock price
The growing problems with Elon Musk’s EV maker are also apparent in the Wall Street consensus for Tesla stock. According to the TipRanks data Finbold reviewed on January 15, expert rating revisions issued since New Year’s Day have mostly skewed toward either ‘Hold’ or ‘Sell.’
Similarly, the average rating for the car company’s equity is recorded as ‘Hold’ on the stock analysis website, and the average 12-month price target stands at $394.12, 10.26% below the latest close.
Is Tesla stock a buy in 2026 despite risk factors?
Indeed, Tesla stock welcomed the January 14 closing bell at $439.20 – 104.99% above the 52-week low of $214.25 – and even rallied a modest 0.38% in the extended session to its press time price of $440.86.
Even though Tesla appears to be plagued by many issues, it might still be an attractive investment in 2026. So far, TSLA shares have been relatively resilient to declining sales, earnings misses, and broken promises and have even rallied 41% in the last six months.
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