Is UPS stock in danger as Amazon and tariff pressure triggers layoffs?

By press time on April 30, the United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) – or rather, UPS workers – was the first major casualty of the escalating 2025 trade war.

Specifically, on April 29, UPS revealed its plans to lay off as many as 20,000 employees later this year, due to cutting its work for Amazon in half. 

Currently, the situation with Amazon does not appear directly linked to the tariffs, although the pressure arising from the shifting trade landscape is reflected in UPS’ decision to pull guidance due to uncertainty.

Why UPS is downsizing its business with Amazon

Instead, United Parcel Service’s CEO Carol Tome previously explained that the technology and e-commerce giant was his firm’s biggest client, but not the most profitable one, thus prompting the decision to reassess the relationship.

While not confirmed, it is possible that the ‘reassessment’ was prompted by Amazon’s effort to secure its own deliveries through programs like drone shipments.

Elsewhere, the recent conflict between the White House, Amazon, and Chinese suppliers may call into question the remaining business between UPS and the e-commerce titan.

Specifically, Jeff Bezos’ company is reportedly pressuring its partners in the People’s Republic to take on the tariff costs while allegedly planning to list the Trump policy-related price change for each item.

It remains unclear if Amazon backtracked, never planned, or is obfuscating its intent to give the trade war additional bad press, as it quickly denied any such plans once the administration accused it of engaging in a ‘hostile and political act,’ thus prompting an intraday AMZN stock crash.

Why UPS stock holding steady could be bearish

Elsewhere, UPS stock has remained mostly steady at the end of April, despite a string of adverse developments. During the April 29 session, United Parcel Service fell 0.37% to its latest closing price of $96.73. In the pre-market on Wednesday, UPS shares declined a further 0.01% to $96.72.

While staying relatively level despite adverse news such as the firing of 20,000 workers, diminishing business with the biggest partner, and facing an even steeper drop in volume due to the trade war might appear positive, there is cause for investors to be wary.

Specifically, the limited daily decline came shortly after United Parcel Services unveiled a strong quarterly report, which saw it beat both revenue forecasts – it achieved $21.50 billion instead of the $21.02 billion – and earnings per share (EPS) predictions. EPS was $1.49, not the expected $1.38.

Zooming out further shows that UPS stock is in dire straits as it is 1.68% down in the last week of trading, 12.06% down in the last 30 days, and 21.91% in the red year-to-date (YTD).

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