Jim Cramer is cautioning investors that September has historically been the weakest month for U.S. equities, though he argued that the current political and economic backdrop could override seasonal trends.

“September is seasonally weak. We have some inflation numbers and a potentially tough Labor number. But this presidency can defy any seasonality so I wouldn’t bet on the calendar,” Cramer said, noting that markets remain highly sensitive to both macro data and political signals.

The caution comes against a backdrop of well-documented September weakness. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 1.1% decline in September since 1897, finishing higher just 42.2% of the time.

The S&P 500 has also averaged a 1.1% loss since 1928, closing higher only 44.9% of the time, while the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 0.9% on average since 1971, with positive returns just 51.9% of the time.

Still, some analysts suggest the current cycle could buck the trend. U.S. equities surged in August as economically sensitive stocks rebounded on optimism that the Federal Reserve is preparing its first interest-rate cut of 2025. Consumer inflation has shown signs of moderating despite tariff pressures, while labor market data hints at cooling conditions, both factors that strengthen the case for monetary easing.

Gold prices hit all-time high

At the same time, safe-haven demand is building. Gold prices hit an all-time high on Tuesday, rising to $3,508.70 per ounce in Asian trading before easing back to $3,497. The rally follows President Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs and a weakening dollar, with bullion drawing inflows as investors hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty.

With a pivotal jobs report due and the Fed poised to meet later this month, September’s trading pattern could prove decisive. Investors are weighing whether history’s weakest month will play out again, or if fiscal and monetary policy shifts will rewrite the script in 2025.