Banking giant JPMorgan has shifted its market stance, signaling renewed optimism for equities as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran appear to have cooled.
According to a June 23 note from the bank’s trading desk, the de-escalation in the Middle East is allowing markets to refocus on broader macroeconomic fundamentals. The institution now believes the stage is set for a fresh push toward all-time market highs.
To this end, JPMorgan’s traders have reclassified their outlook to “tactically bullish,” citing many factors behind the pivot, including strong macroeconomic indicators, a continued uptrend in corporate earnings, and a softening of global trade tensions.
Markets are now shifting focus to the upcoming earnings season and the looming expiration of key tariff exemptions. JPMorgan noted that these events and stabilizing global dynamics could drive further gains in risk assets.
“We shift our view back to Tactically Bullish with the bullish hypothesis based on resilient macro data, positive EPS growth, and thawing trade war rhetoric,” the bank said.
This marks a notable reversal from the bank’s previous caution, which warned of a possible recession in 2025 due to uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs.
In another shift, JPMorgan revised its recession outlook to below 50% after the United States reached a trade deal with China.
S&P 500 turns bullish
Meanwhile, amid the cooling of Middle East tensions, the benchmark S&P 500 opened Tuesday on a strong note, reclaiming the 6,000 mark. At press time, the index was up 1.1%, trading at 6,088.
Despite JPMorgan’s bullish tone, not all of Wall Street shares the same view. For instance, Stifel strategist Barry Bannister expects the S&P 500 to face a correction in the second half of 2025, citing a consumer pullback and slowing consumption.
Bannister also warned that such a slowdown could expose the cyclical nature of Big Tech.
“We think there’s going to be a consumer slowdown. <…> As the consumers pull back, precautionary savings go up, consumption slows,” Bannister said in an interview with CNBC.
Overall, Wall Street remains divided on the market’s trajectory, with lingering fears of a potential recession and broader economic uncertainty.
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