Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) could face a sharp correction to as low as $135 by early January 2027, according to a long-term technical analysis.
The forecast comes as Nvidia stock traded at $228 of press time, extending a six-day run of consecutive wins.
Now, according to an analysis by TradingShot published on TradingView on September 22, NVDA may be approaching another technical bearish leg similar to the corrections seen in late 2018 and 2022, despite the company’s strong underlying fundamentals.
The analysis noted that Nvidia has traded within an 11-year ascending channel that has experienced two major corrections over the past decade.
Both the 2018 and 2022 downturns bottomed at Nvidia’s weekly 200-week moving average (MA), which now points to a potential downside target of about $135 by early January 2027.
The analyst observed that Nvidia’s current setup closely resembles the pattern that preceded the 2018 correction. Since March 2026, the stock has repeatedly tested its weekly 50-week moving average while trading within an increasingly narrow range.
Meanwhile, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to form lower highs, a pattern in place since January 2017. The outlook also highlighted a bearish divergence, signaling weakening momentum despite elevated prices.
Nvidia key price levels to watch
If Nvidia fails to break above the current consolidation zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels of its long-term channel, a new bearish leg could emerge in the coming months.
Before any move toward $135, the weekly 100-week moving average near $175 is identified as the first major support level.
The bearish technical outlook contrasts sharply with Nvidia’s underlying business performance.
For instance, the technology company reported fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion in August, up 106% year over year, while data center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion. Nvidia also guided for third-quarter revenue of approximately $108 billion, reflecting continued strength in artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.
Chief Executive Jensen Huang has maintained a bullish outlook, stating that demand remains strong across hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign AI initiatives. Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform is also ramping into production, supporting expectations for continued growth through fiscal 2028.
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