Palantir stock (NASDAQ: PLTR) crashed below the critical $100 support level on February 24.
While broader market volatility certainly played a role, several bearish factors specific to the data analytics venture were and remain at play. In January alone, company insiders dumped more than $40 million worth of PLTR shares.
Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp also adopted a new 10b5-1 trading plan, which could see him sell as many as 9,975,000 units of PLTR stock by September 12, 2025. At current prices, that would amount to a roughly $827 million sale — which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
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Speaking of current prices, at press time, Palantir stock was changing hands at $82.92, which marks a 9.63% increase on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. On March 11, the stock closed at $78.05 — but experienced a 6.23% move to the upside in the after-market and pre-market trading sessions.
This surge was caused by two bullish catalysts — now, the question of whether or not PLTR shares will find support at $80, return to a downward trajectory, or surge back up to $100 remains.
New customers and AI-system rollout buoy Palantir stock
Before engaging with the question, let’s examine the root causes of the upswing. The Alex Karp-led company delivered two Tactical Intelligence Target Access Node (TITAN) trucks to the U.S. Army.
These trucks, which collect and process data for the purpose of targeting, are the result of a $178.4 million program years in the making — which appears to be both on time and on schedule.
Back in August, Palantir delivered the first prototype — the company is slated to deliver ten of these vehicles by 2026. After that, the Army will decide whether or not to move forward with full-rate production.
Although officials have not commented on the extent of the potential full purchase, the company’s senior vice president, Bryant Choung, commented that Palantir’s internal estimate is pegged at 100 to 150 vehicles for the full order.
Overreliance on government contracts has long been considered the Achilles heel of Palantir stock’s future prospects. The second bullish catalyst at play is the addition of new customers from the private sector.
On March 13, the business will hold its sixth Artificial Intelligence Platform Conference (AIPCon). Market materials have been unveiled, including the logos of nine companies that were not prior customers. These include Walgreens, Delta Air Lines, and Heineken. Per the company’s own publications, the total number of new clients is more than 20.
Is $100 a realistic price target for PLTR stock?
Ultimately, market sentiment and macroeconomic outlook have shifted too far for $100 to be a reliable price target. Sure, Palantir stock isn’t directly impacted by tariffs and trade wars — but the Trump administration’s proposed 8% cut to the Pentagon’s budget on an annual basis is a pretty significant potential landmine.
Moreover, the smouldering trade dispute can affect the stock in other ways. Resurgent inflation, a recession, or simply continued bearish sentiment would have quite the outsized effect on risky assets. With a taut valuation, the data analytics company is in a vulnerable position.
So, is it impossible for Palantir stock to surge to $100? No — PLTR has demonstrated the ability to garner investor confidence and price in plenty of future growth. However, sustaining such a high valuation, especially for an extended period of time, particularly in these circumstances, remains unlikely.
Featured image via Shutterstock
