After swinging from $72 to above $116 in a matter of weeks, silver is now back trading around $85, and traders on cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket are betting on where the precious metal heads next.

Specifically, the odds of silver being above $70 are at 87%, and the odds of it being above $75 are at 53%.

Polymarket anomalies in predicting Silver February price

Still, this prediction market is interesting since it simultaneously presents several apparent anomalies, likely driven by the way Polymarket adjusts odds and by the activity of the increasingly-popular trading bots.

Specifically, it could be reasonably expected that, as the forecasted silver price rises, the odds of it actually being reached fall. For example, if the argent metal ends the month above $80, it is guaranteed to also be above $75 or $60.

Despite this, the odds of silver being above $70 are higher – and, in fact, the highest in the market – at 87% than of it being above $40 – where the percentage is at 86.

Similarly, the odds of precious metal finding itself above $110 are, at 36%, higher than of it being $100 – 33%.

Silver price path to February 28

Elsewhere, a kindred market roughly outlines how traders are expecting silver to trade in the remaining 17 days of February.

Silver is most likely to touch $75 at some point in the month, with odds of 59%, per the data Finbold retrieved from Polymarket. 

Additionally, while $65, $70, and $120 are also considered plausible milestones in February, with the chances ranging from 10% to 25%, the probability of $75 has risen significantly at the expense of other potential prices, indicating a lower expected volatility.

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