Ripple is set to unlock another 1 billion XRP from escrow tomorrow, July 1, continuing with its nearly ten-year-long release schedule designed to improve transparency around XRP distribution.
According to the Ripple escrow program, 1 billion XRP is automatically unlocked on the first day of each month from escrow accounts on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
With XRP currently hovering around $1.02, the notional value of tomorrow’s release just barely exceeds $1 billion. However, historical data suggests that only a portion of the unlocked tokens is going to enter circulation.
How much XRP will Ripple unlock tomorrow?
Historically, Ripple has regularly re-locked a substantial share of the unlocked supply back into fresh escrow contracts. In other words, the net increase in circulating XRP has usually been far smaller than the headline 1 billion figures suggest.
In prior months, only around 200 million to 400 million XRP have typically entered circulation, with the remainder returned to escrow for future distribution cycles. As part of this unlock pattern, Ripple usually allocates the newly circulating tokens across operational needs, liquidity management, and institutional partnerships.
Naturally, allowing only a part of the new supply in circulation has effectively extended Ripple’s original escrow schedule well beyond its initial timeline, leaving roughly 38 billion XRP still held in escrow as of press time. At this rate, it will take nearly a decade for the company to finish releasing the tokens.
Will Ripple escrow affect XRP prices?
For the same reason, tomorrow’s unlock will likely not affect XRP prices in any meaningful way, being rather transparent and predictable. Indeed, historical escrow releases have tended to produce relatively muted volatility compared to the sharper price reactions often seen with large, one-off token unlock events in other crypto assets.
This has recently led to some debate on whether the approach is valid or not, with analysts such as Bill Morgan urging Ripple to speed up the process, arguing “XRP will become the best hard money” once the escrow is complete.
Next month, XRP price is thus more likely to hinge on whale accumulation, on-chain activity, and news regarding Ripple’s endeavors to acquire a MiCA license, with some analyses suggesting further downside.
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