In no small part thanks to Elon Musk’s own claims, autonomous driving vehicles are expected to be widely proliferated in 2026 and bring massive stock market windfalls, but many observers and analysts are seeing a growing opportunity for shorting Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock.
Specifically, a prominent TSLA bear, Gordon Johnson of GJL Research, took to X to opine that ‘fanbois’ have begun questioning the premises associated with the so-called ‘FSD.’
According to the analyst, Tesla might soon suffer a deep retracement since the importance of the technology for the equity and its actual usefulness are at odds.
Indeed, earlier in March, Johnson argued that approximately 80% of TSLA stock’s $1.5 trillion valuation can be attributed to the hopes related to autonomous driving, both in terms of how it can be used by regular customers, and at an enterprise level via ‘robotaxi’ services.
Simultaneously, the Wall Street expert implied Tesla shares might soon suffer an 80% crash since, in the March 17 thread on X, he argued that the technology does not work while citing the figures indicating that FSD is underperforming human drivers in terms of crashing and the string of high-profile company departures from the departments critical for the project.
Washington investment advisory firm urges shorting Tesla stock
While Gordon Johnson is a contentious figure due to his permanent negativity and numerous extremely bearish Tesla stock 12-month price targets – targets that predicted crashes that have, so far, failed to materialize – he is not the only one to believe TSLA has become an excellent opportunity for short traders.
On March 16, an account apparently belonging to Macfarlane Investors LLC, an investment advisory firm registered in Washington, published an article on X in which it outlined why Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) maker is likely bound for a deep correction.
The core of the argument, spread across six categories, is that the way Tesla has marketed its FSD has been as misleading as its claims about how widespread its use has become.
For example, Macfarlane noted that, out of the tens of alleged autonomous vehicles in the streets, there appear to be no more than one or two unsupervised cars at any given time.
The article also argued that the most important part of the business – the actual EV sales – has been on a steady decline both in absolute terms and as expressed by market share in critical areas such as the United States and the European Union.
Under the circumstances, it would appear that Tesla stock cannot retain its remarkably high valuation – listed in the article as 376x earnings – unless its core business enjoys a rapid recovery, or the company delivers on its promises regarding cutting-edge technology.
Is Tesla stock about to collapse?
Considering Elon Musk’s widely discussed history of using unrealistic and bombastic promises to keep Tesla stock’s value and the company’s relevance up, the bearish thesis certainly has a leg to stand on.
Simultaneously, however, TSLA shares’ history of not suffering the consequences of breaking said promises in any meaningful way could hint that taking a short position is likely to be a failed strategy.
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