The S&P 500 saw some rather drastic market capitalization swings in the early hours on Monday, March 23.
It all began around 7:00 a.m. (ET), when President Donald Trump said that the U.S. and Iran were in talks to end the ongoing conflict in the Middle Eastern country.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
By 7:10 a.m. (ET), the S&P 500 surged 240 points, adding $2 trillion in market cap, based on a market report published on X by The Kobeissi Latter.
Just 27 minutes later, Iran denied all of Trump’s claims, admitting that there had been no contact with Washington.
As a result, the S&P 500 lost 120 points and erased $1 trillion in market cap by 8:00 a.m. (ET). Overall, the index thus saw a $3 trillion market cap swing in just 56 minutes.
Recent S&P 500 developments
Other developments have drawn significant attention. One of them was the break below the 200-day moving average two days ago, which ended a year-long stretch in which the index had remained above the trend line, signaling that momentum may be weakening.
In other news, the index is going through the longest period of decoupling from Bitcoin (BTC) in six years. Indeed, since September 2025, the flagship crypto has been stuck in a downtrend driven largely by heavy deleveraging across the crypto market, while the S&P 500 sits more or less where it was in late 2025.
Analysts note that falling investor confidence in the S&P 500 has increased mid-term bearish sentiment, while Bitcoin has already been trending lower for two quarters. If those conditions persist, the decoupling could extend further in the near term.
Moreover, the banking giant JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) has again lowered its S&P 500 prediction from 7,500 to 7,200, implying a mere 5% upside potential.
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