The SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) short volume ratio has been steadily climbing since the first day in the stock market, June 12, and hit its fourth consecutive and latest all-time high (ATH) of 68.72 on Wednesday, June 24.
Indeed, just after the IPO, the figure stood at a relatively low 33.72 and began a steady climb to 46.22 on the third trading day before slightly retracing to 45.71 on June 17 – shortly after SPCX shares recorded their intraday ATH price of $225.64 and the company’s valuation soared to just under $3 trillion.
Simultaneously, SpaceX stock continued its plunge toward its initial opening price of $150 on the day, and is, based on the movements in the opening hour of the Thursday session, in danger of recording a new all-time low.
SpaceX stock price performance
Indeed, after the IPO was conducted at $135 per share, the equity started trading at $150 on June 12 and ended the day at $160.95. In subsequent sessions, SPCX soared to the $225.64 ATH and the ATH closing price of $211.39, but then sharply retraced.
At press time on Thursday, June 25, SpaceX stock is changing hands at $152.46, meaning it started the session with a 1.35% loss relative to the previous close and, notably, reversed a brief recovery in the pre-market.
Why SpaceX stock is set for a rally in July and August
Looking ahead, it appears likely that SPCX shares will enjoy another rally later in the summer.
The exceptionally high IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion has made it all but impossible for SpaceX not to meet the criteria for fast-track inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 in a move guaranteed to trigger significant automatic buying from index funds.
Furthermore, the earnings report for the calendar second quarter (Q2) also appears poised to generate tailwinds. Regardless of SpaceX’s other divisions’ performance, Elon Musk’s newer public company has been developing its neocloud business with partnerships with artificial intelligence (AI) giants such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Anthropic.
The latter of the two could be particularly significant.
According to SpaceX’s S-1 filing, it offered a discount to the AI company for the duration of Q2 as part of a ramp-up period, meaning that it will, on the one hand, probably be able to record some revenue from the agreement, and, on the other, will be able to predictably raise its revenue forecast for Q3 once the full price of just over $1 billion starts getting levied.
Elsewhere, industry skeptics such as Ed Zitron speculated that the initial discount is part of the reason why Anthopic was able to claim likely profitability during Q2, but not for later in the year.
Could SpaceX stock price plummet to new lows before 2027?
Long-term, SpaceX stock’s performance becomes significantly more uncertain. Various banking giants and Elon Musk himself estimated the company’s revenue would reach sufficiently high – up to $1 trillion by 2030 and over $3 trillion by 2040 – to justify the high valuation.
On the bearish side, the firm’s revenue during Q1 was roughly forty times smaller than Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) – SpaceX briefly overtook Amazon in terms of market capitalization earlier in June – and the company was operating at a loss.
Lastly, the insider lockup-structure – and the unlock timetable, to be more precise – is itself likely to generate substantial selling pressure by the end of 2026.
Featured image via Shutterstock
