As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shareholders experienced a relief rally of more than 17% over the past three weeks, fueled by its blowout second-quarter (Q2) earnings report, Glenn Thum, an analyst at Phillip Securities, cautioned investors of a potential capitulation for this stock to a new all-time low (ATL) over the next 12 months.
Thum reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating for SpaceX stock, according to a note sent to clients on August 17, and analyzed by Finbold on August 18. He maintained the firm’s 12-month price target of $75, which implies a potential 46.6% downside as SPCX traded at $140.50 at press time.
This analyst based his bearish outlook on the company’s heavy capital expenditure (CapEx), Artificial Intelligence (AI) customer concentration, and temporary cloud contracts. Phillip Securities argued that a re-rating for SpaceX could require longer-term commitments.
SpaceX’s overall Q2 2026 revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion. Connectivity revenue grew 66% to $4.3 billion, powered by Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and strong enterprise and government demand that lifted segment operating income by 79%. Meanwhile, the company’s AI revenue jumped 247% to $2.6 billion, driven primarily by new cloud services and infrastructure agreements.
SpaceX stock forecast
Although Phillip Securities signaled a potential further selloff for SpaceX over the next 12 months, the majority of Wall Street analysts have predicted a bull rally. Specifically, 31 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month price target of $232.35, suggesting a possible 64% upside.
Worth noting that the highest SPCX price forecast is about $800, while the lowest remains at $75.
SPCX performance outlook
Although SPCX stock rebounded over 17% after reporting its debut earnings results, it has faced its first major resistance level around $149. As a result, SpaceX’s stock price has fallen by more than 4% over the past 24 hours, thus its market capitalization is approximately $1.9 trillion at the time of publication.
Consequently, if SpaceX announces more long-term contracts for its AI and Starlink subscribers, the bullish target for all Wall Street analysts could be reached. However, if the company fails to secure more long-term contracts for its AI and Starlink subscribers, the recent rally may turn out to be a dead-cat bounce.
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