Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has suggested that gold’s performance relative to crude oil could serve as the trigger to propel the precious metal toward the $4,000 mark.

According to McGlone, the sharp divergence between surging gold prices and falling crude oil could be the catalyst, as he noted in an X post on August 29.

Notably, gold has dominated global asset performance in 2025, advancing nearly 30% year-to-date and more than 36% over the past 12 months. Indeed, although the yellow metal has failed to establish its price above the $3,500 spot, the general sentiment remains bullish. 

In contrast, crude oil futures have dropped more than 10% this year, ranking among the weakest major assets. As per McGlone’s outlook, this divergence points to an underlying economic stress, with investors increasingly favoring safe-haven assets. 

Additionally, McGlone emphasized that the key lies in the sustainability of these opposing forces. Gold remains supported by persistent demand amid fiscal imbalances, slowing growth, and geopolitical uncertainty, thereby reinforcing its role as a defensive store of value.

“It’s a question of sustainability. I see the precious metal on track toward $4,000 an ounce vs. WTI crude’s cyclical gravity pulling it toward $40 a barrel,” he said 

Oil signalling warning signs 

Oil, meanwhile, remains caught in a typical downcycle. After spiking to 2022 highs, it is now searching for a price floor that can rebalance supply with demand. 

Therefore, the $55-a-barrel trough this year sits near U.S. producers’ break-even, signaling strain in the energy sector. 

At the same time, McGlone, who remains bullish on gold, has highlighted that the metal’s consistent outperformance over stocks and cryptocurrencies signals a warning for risk assets. 

As reported by Finbold, he observed that for nearly eight years the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have lagged gold, reflecting fading confidence and reinforcing its safe-haven role.

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