In recent months, Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has seen a significant decline in its stock market performance, notably lagging behind the robust gains seen in the broader S&P 500 index throughout 2023.
This downward trend can largely be attributed to shifting consumer sentiment, sluggish company sales, and weakening demand for certain product categories. In addition, widespread boycotts against the company’s controversial Pride-themed clothing line for children also played their part.
However, a less-discussed factor has also played a role in Target’s struggles – the substantial losses incurred from organized retail crime and in-store thefts, adding an additional layer of challenge to the company’s 2023 performance.
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Target closed multiple stores due to organized retail crime
In May 2023, Target said it expected to sustain $1.3 billion in losses due to “theft and organized crime.” At the time, the retail giant said its profit would lose $500 million more than what it did in 2022, when it took a $800 million hit because of an “inventory shrink.”
Since this warning, TGT shares have plummeted considerably.
Notably, the company lost $30 billion in market value in 6 months since theft activity accelerated, dropping from nearly $170 apiece to the current $106.6, The Kobeissi Letter pointed out on October 4.
In percentage terms, the stock is down more than 35% on the 6-month chart.
“In August, Target said stores saw a 120% increase in theft involving violence the first 5 months of 2023.”
– The Kobeissi added.
More recently, Target shut down 9 stores across 4 states, including some in New York and San Francisco, citing growing violence and theft as primary reasons.
“We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests, and contributing to unsustainable business performance.”
– Target stated in a press release.
Target stock price analysis
At press time, shares of Target were sitting at $106.62, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours.
The stock fell more than 2.4% in the past 5 days and nearly 15% on the month.
At its current price, TGT is trading just above a 3.5-year support level, located at around $105.7. Losing this ground would pave the way for the stock to drop toward the next support close to $90.10.
On the upside, the stock faces a near-term resistance zone at around $122.
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