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Tesla stock earnings forecast; Why analysts are bearish

Tesla stock earnings forecast; Why analysts are bearish

While the struggles have persisted for longer, 2024 kickstarted in earnest what has so far been an unstoppable decline for Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) maker, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA).

Indeed, not only has TSLA become the worst-performing stock of the S&P 500 index in 2024 – taking that honor despite Boeing’s (NYSE: BA) shares apparently falling apart like some of its airplanes – but it has also been a source of continuous bad news with the most recent being mass layoffs in various divisions of the company.

In April, the EV maker also saw some of its senior officers jumping ship as Andrew ‘Drew’ Baglino, the senior vice president of Tesla’s powertrain and energy engineering team, announced his departure on Monday, coincidentally shortly after dumping approximately $2 million worth of the firm’s shares.

Additionally, the delivery report for the first quarter – published earlier in April – demonstrated that the single Tesla sold in South Korea in January was indeed the canary violently coughing amid evaporating oxygen, and does much to explain why analysts are highly bearish about the earnings report scheduled for April 23.

The bearish outlook for TSLA earnings

Given all of Tesla’s recent woes and the decidedly cold climate of the EV winter, it probably isn’t surprising that analysts are, in general, not hopeful when it comes to the upcoming earnings report.

Indeed, the consensus forecast for the earning-per-share (EPS) stands at just $0.36. For comparison, Tesla reported EPS of $0.73 for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 and $0.57 in Q4 of the same year.

The fact that the actual figures came below the expectations in three out of the last four quarters does little to provide a silver lining.

Finally, the more forward-looking EPS forecasts are also fairly bearish as Tesla is expected to match the earnings of the final trimester of 2023 only in Q4 2024 – and that particular quarter was the weakest of last year.

Tesla stock price chart

Whether Tesla beats the forecasts or not – and whether the layoffs truly help the EV maker restructure for future growth, as Musk recently explained in a post on X – TSLA shares have been doing especially poorly in 2024.

Indeed, in the last 52 weeks, Tesla is down only 13.67% – largely thanks to a mid-2023 rally – but is significantly – 35.85% – in the red year-to-date (YTD).

TSLA stock YTD price chart. Source: Finbold

Despite the volatility and some upward movement, the more recent trend is, as a whole, not more optimistic, and TSLA stock is down 7.09% in the last 30 days and 6.68% on the weekly chart.

The layoffs also had a major impact and, at the latest stock market close on Monday, April 15, Elon Musk’s EV maker found itself 5.59% in the red at $161.48 – dangerously close to its 52-week low.

Tesla’s price today stands at $159.36 after the stock continued its decline in the extended trading session.

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