Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) dominance in the global electric vehicle (EV) market continues to face significant threats as sales decline in key regions amid mounting competition.
Notably, Tesla’s stock price remains under pressure amid this shift, failing to sustain its late 2024 momentum. In 2025, the stock has plunged 12.85%, trading at $330.53 as of press time.
TSLA ended the last session down 2.15% as the equity tussles to reclaim the $350 resistance level.
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Tesla declining sales
Regarding the company’s sales, China’s BYD is rapidly expanding into international markets, gaining traction in the UK and solidifying its lead over Tesla in its home market.
For the first time, BYD outsold Tesla in the UK in January 2025, selling BYD 1,614 passenger cars. During the month, Tesla registered 1,416 fully electric vehicles in the UK, an 8% year-over-year decline, even as the overall EV market surged 42%.
Meanwhile, BYD sold 1,047 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), narrowing the gap with Tesla despite entering the UK market in 2023, nearly a decade after Tesla’s 2014 debut.
In general, Tesla’s UK market share slipped from 8% in January 2024 to just 5% this year, falling behind rivals like Audi, Kia, and Peugeot.
Across mainland Europe, Tesla’s sales plunged 45% in January, with just 9,945 vehicles registered, while overall EV sales climbed 37%. Major markets saw steep declines: Germany (-59%), France (-63%), and the Netherlands (-42%), even as battery-electric vehicles reached a 15% market share across the continent.
Tesla’s struggles in Europe can be tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political stance, such as his endorsements of far-right movements, including Germany’s AfD. In Europe, where Tesla’s customer base leans liberal and eco-conscious, critics accuse him of hypocrisy.
Meanwhile, in China, the gap between the two automakers continues to widen. Last week, BYD recorded 59,100 insurance registrations, a 26% jump from 46,800 the previous week.
Tesla, by contrast, saw registrations fall 6.67% to just 7,000. BYD is gaining an edge over Tesla in China partly due to its pricing advantage and diverse offerings, including hybrids that resonate with local buyers. Tesla’s aging lineup and reliance on discounts have failed to attract buyers.
TSLA stock price prediction
Regarding Tesla’s stock price prediction amid declining sales, Finbold turned to ChatGPT-4o’s artificial intelligence (AI) tool to determine how the equity might trade at the end of 2025.
The AI tool provided three possible outcomes. In a bearish scenario where sales struggles persist and demand weakens, the stock could drop further and trade between $280 and $300 by year-end.
In a base-case scenario, where Tesla shows some recovery, TSLA might hold onto its current valuation and potentially reclaim the $350 resistance.
In a more bullish outlook, where the company unveils new models and advances in AI, the stock could hit $380, though reclaiming $400 remains a challenge.
From a technical perspective, pseudonymous stock trading expert Mike Investing noted in an X post on February 24 that TSLA’s current decline might offer a perfect buying opportunity before a massive rally.
According to the expert, the technical setup suggests that TSLA is forming a bottoming range between $230 and $250, positioning itself for a breakout. The analysis highlighted a falling wedge pattern, a historically bullish formation, indicating that downward momentum is weakening.
If Tesla confirms a breakout, price projections point to a potential surge toward $460 to $560, with some experts even setting a massive target of over $600 in the near future.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is also taking note of Tesla’s struggling sales and the potential impact on the company. As reported by Finbold, Gordon Johnson, CEO and Founder of GLJ Research, warned that Tesla might ‘implode’ in 2025, citing possible backlash from Musk’s political affiliations.
At the same time, Johnson termed Tesla’s declining insured units in China a ‘disaster,’ extending his long-term bearish outlook on the equity.
Featured image via Shutterstock
