XRP may be flashing a historically bullish signal after recording its largest on-chain realized loss spike since November 2022. 

Data shows the sharpest surge in realized losses in over three years, with the last comparable event occurring 39 months ago, when losses reached roughly $1.93 billion.

That capitulation event preceded a powerful rebound, with the asset rallying 114% over the following eight months, according to data shared by Santiment on February 21.

The spike in realized losses signals a wave of capitulation that could be laying the groundwork for a rebound. 

Realized losses occur when investors sell below their purchase price, typically reflecting fear-driven exits during sharp downturns. 

While negative on the surface, such spikes have historically marked late-stage selling near market bottoms. 

In this line, Santiment’s five-year data shows similar drawdowns often align with seller exhaustion, easing downside pressure and opening the door to recovery.

At present, XRP remains in a prolonged correction from recent highs, and the heavy realized losses suggest much of the recent damage may already be absorbed. 

While this does not guarantee an immediate breakout, past capitulation events have increased the probability of a medium-term rebound. If XRP were to mirror its post-2022 performance, a comparable 100% rally from current levels would target the $2.70–$2.80 range in the months ahead.

A significant part of any recovery will also depend on broader market conditions, as the token has largely traded in tandem with the wider cryptocurrency sector, often mirroring Bitcoin’s (BTC) trajectory.

XRP price analysis

By press time, XRP was trading at $1.39, down more than 2% in the last 24 hours and 6.6% on the weekly timeframe.

At current levels, XRP is hovering well below both its 50-day SMA at $1.77 and 200-day SMA at $2.30, pointing to a firmly bearish technical structure. 

Trading beneath these key moving averages suggests sustained downside momentum and confirms that both the medium- and long-term trends remain under pressure.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 39.39, hovering near the lower end of neutral territory. While not yet in oversold conditions, the reading reflects weakening momentum and persistent selling pressure.

Together, the subdued RSI and price positioning below major SMAs indicate a market that remains technically fragile, though it is approaching levels where a relief bounce could emerge if selling begins to exhaust itself.

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