During the March 2025 rebalancing of the S&P 500 index, it was highly anticipated that the stock of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) would join the list.
This anticipation was rooted in the company meeting most of the criteria, such as commanding a high market cap, currently at $44 billion, above the S&P 500’s $8.2 billion threshold.
At the same time, Coinbase boasted strong financial performance, including $2.3 billion in revenue for the last quarter of 2024.
Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency exchange was passed over in favor of DoorDash, TKO Group, Williams-Sonoma, and Expand Energy.
This marked a recurring disappointment for Coinbase, which also missed the cut in December 2024. Analysts speculate that COIN’s stock volatility might be the reason for its failure to join the lucrative index.
To this end, the firm’s reliance on Bitcoin (BTC) and the volatile crypto market may have likely deterred the S&P 500 Index Committee. Coinbase’s price swings with crypto fluctuations could be risky, especially amid economic uncertainty and fading investor confidence in digital assets.
At press time, COIN stock had plunged about 32% year-to-date to a valuation of $174.52.
Analysts turn bullish on COIN stock
Despite these setbacks, Wall Street analysts at TipRanks paint a more optimistic picture of Coinbase’s future. Based on the consensus of 20 analysts, the stock has a ‘Moderate Buy’ rating.
Of these, 11 analysts recommend a ‘Buy,’ 9 suggest a ‘Hold,’ and none advocate for a ‘Sell.’ More importantly, the experts’ average 12-month price target for Coinbase stands at $330.79, an upside of 89.54%. The forecast ranges from a high of $475 to a low target of $195.
A review of some analysts shows that on March 20, Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of Coinbase with a ‘Neutral’ rating and a price target of $195. The firm expressed a “cautiously optimistic” stance, citing the company’s potential growth from rising cryptocurrency prices and possible U.S. regulatory reforms. However, analysts warned of upside and downside risks that could impact the stock’s trajectory.
Meanwhile, Bernstein took a much more bullish stance on March 18, giving Coinbase an ‘Outperform’ rating with a $310 price target. Analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed to a shift toward crypto-friendly policies under President Donald Trump, emphasizing how regulatory clarity and blockchain innovation initiatives could benefit the exchange.
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