Prediction market traders are assigning a low probability to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reaching $272 by the end of September 2026.
As things stand, traders currently place just a 3% chance of Nvidia hitting $272 before month-end, a gain of about 18% from its current price of around $230.
At the same time, traders see the most likely outcomes clustering closer to the stock’s current trading range, with a 73% probability that Nvidia remains above $224 and a 66% chance of reaching $232 or $240, according to Polymarket data retrieved on September 7.
The probabilities suggest traders expect Nvidia to remain elevated following its recent rally but view a move to $272 as an ambitious target over the coming weeks.
Overall, the prediction market data points to a moderately bullish outlook for Nvidia shares. Traders assign a 40% probability that NVDA reaches $248 by the end of September, while the odds fall to 20% for $256 and 10% for $264.
On the downside, traders see a 39% chance that Nvidia falls to $216, a 17% probability of reaching $208, and only a 10% chance of dropping to $200.
While the company continues to benefit from strong AI demand trends, prediction market participants appear to view a rally to $272 as unlikely in the near term.
The distribution suggests investors largely expect Nvidia to trade within a relatively tight range around current levels rather than stage a major breakout or suffer a sharp correction before September ends.
NVDA stock fundamentals
The prediction market outlook follows another quarter of record financial results from Nvidia, reinforcing its position as the dominant supplier of AI accelerators.
For the second quarter of fiscal 2027, Nvidia reported revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, while data center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion. The company also posted GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.46 and net income of approximately $59.7 billion.
Management guided for third-quarter revenue of roughly $108 billion and projected approximately 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, underscoring continued demand for AI infrastructure.
Growth continues to be driven by hyperscale cloud providers and enterprises investing heavily in AI computing capacity. Nvidia is also benefiting from the rollout of its next-generation Vera Rubin platform and expanding partnerships with major customers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and CoreWeave.
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