Crypto analyst Ali Martinez says Bitcoin (BTC) could rally to $94,849 if BTC holds a critical support level at $72,962, according to Glassnode MVRV data.
Notably, the $94,849 BTC price target coincides with the all-time historical average MVRV Ratio (Market Value / Realized Value), while the support level around $72,962 aligns with the 0.5 standard deviation below the mean.
However, if Bitcoin price fails to rebound from the support level around $72,962 in the near future, Martinez argued that a drop toward the realized price around $54,270 could be inevitable. The analyst cautioned traders that a breach of the support level around $72,962 could confirm a further free fall for BTC, potentially hitting a new lower low before a possible rebound towards new highs later in 2026.
Key factors that could determine Bitcoin price outlook
With Bitcoin’s price hovering at a crucial crossroads, as indicated by the MVRV ratio, its near-term outlook could hinge on potential fundamental catalysts. For instance, the flagship coin has closely mirrored the performance of United States spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), especially BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), as Finbold noted.
As such, if the institutional spot demand for BTC wanes, amid heightened short bets in the leveraged market, further capitulation towards $54,270 could be imminent. However, if the institutional demand for Bitcoin, especially in the United States, gets renewed, potentially catalyzed by the anticipated passage of the Clarity Act – a proposed federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets – a rally beyond $82,000 could be bolstered.
Already, the total Bitcoin inflows to all crypto exchanges have surged by more than 72,000 BTC over the past two days, according to metrics from CryptoQuant. Historically, an increase in exchange inflow has been a signal of bearish sentiment and vice versa.
