Bitcoin’s (BTC) price cycle is gaining momentum, with analysts pointing to a striking resemblance to historical patterns.
Notably, trading expert Trader Tardigrade has drawn comparisons between Bitcoin’s price action in January 2024 and January 2025, suggesting that this recurring trend could push the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high of $170,000 by the end of March 2025.
Technical analysis: Historical parallels fuel optimism
In January 2024, Bitcoin experienced a sharp breakdown but staged a robust recovery, delivering significant gains by March. The ongoing recovery in January 2025 appears to follow a similar trajectory, with analysts predicting a potential rally if historical patterns hold true.
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“Breakdowns happened in January of both 2024 and 2025, followed by Vigorous recoveries in those years. If BTC follows its moves from January to March, it could reach $170k by the end of March”- the analyst noted.
Adding further depth to this analysis, TradingShot has identified what he calls the ‘March Effect,’ a consistent trend observed during Bitcoin’s last four bull cycles.
In these cycles, Bitcoin typically finds support near or below its 100-day moving average (1D MA100) in January. Once it breaks above this key level, the moving average becomes the new support for upward momentum.
Historically, January marks the first consolidation phase, often with a retest of the 1D MA100. Following this, the market resumes its uptrend, culminating in a second consolidation phase in March, which frequently coincides with a price peak.
TradingShot highlights that January 13, 2025, saw a near-test of the 1D MA100, signaling the onset of the March Effect. The analysis projects a peak of $130,000 in March, while Trader Tardigrade has extended the forecast to $170,000 if the current trend holds steady.
Broader BTC price predictions
While the above analysis offers a bullish outlook, other analysts foresee even greater heights for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst Van Lagen predicts a bull market peak of $300,000 by March 30, 2025. This would represent a 185% increase from Bitcoin’s current price, pushing its market capitalization to an estimated $6 trillion.
At the upper end of the bullish spectrum, Finance experts also believe Bitcoin could reach as high as $300,000 by the end of 2025.
However, more cautious forecasts suggest the cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $39,500 in a bearish scenario.
On average, analysts project a peak price of $185,000 and a low of $80,167 for the year, indicating that significant volatility is likely for Bitcoin in the months ahead.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $104,961, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 10%. On the one-day chart, the leading cryptocurrency has recorded a modest increase of 0.1%, signaling a steady, albeit subdued, upward trend.
Despite the steady growth, Bitcoin’s recent movements suggest that the market may be awaiting a significant catalyst to reignite momentum.
Analysts point to factors such as macroeconomic developments, increased institutional interest, or a surge in retail activity as potential drivers for the next big move.
With optimism still high among investors, all eyes are on Bitcoin to determine whether the coming months will see renewed momentum or continued consolidation.
Featured image via Shutterstock
