Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to $61,500 by the end of October 2026 if a key support trendline fails, according to an analysis by TradingShot.
In a September 11 TradingView post, the analyst said the outlook is based on a bearish chart pattern that resembles the setups seen before the asset’s two largest sell-offs this year.
The expert noted that Bitcoin has been rejected by its 50-week moving average (MA) for three consecutive weeks. The repeated rejection has created bearish momentum and formed an arc pattern that closely resembles the structures that preceded the January and May 2026 market tops.
The analyst highlighted that the May peak is particularly relevant because Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day MA, a situation similar to the current rejection at the 50-week MA. Both earlier patterns were followed by sharp corrections.
According to the analysis, traders should closely monitor the cryptocurrency’s higher-lows trendline, which has acted as a critical support area during the current recovery phase.
Impact of Bitcoin’s May peak
The expert observed that in both January and May, a breakdown below this trendline triggered aggressive selling pressure and accelerated Bitcoin’s decline. A similar breakdown now would likely confirm a new bearish leg for the market.
Adding to the bearish case, the analyst noted that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) structure closely mirrors the formations that developed before the previous two corrections, reinforcing the possibility of another downside move.
If the higher-lows trendline breaks, the expert expects Bitcoin to decline toward the 3.5 Fibonacci extension level at $61,500.
The bearish target is based on Bitcoin’s previous two major corrections in 2026, both of which bottomed at the 3.5 Fibonacci extension while the daily RSI dropped to 15.80. The analyst noted that a similar RSI reading could signal another market bottom.
However, the bearish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above the 50-week MA. The expert also highlighted the 250-week MA as a key support level after it held the July 1 low, with a breakout above the 50-week MA potentially confirming a new bull cycle.
Bitcoin’s short-term outlook
Separately, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintained a more constructive short-term outlook in an X post on September 14, noting that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase.
According to his analysis, the key level to watch is $78,000. A breakout above that resistance could strengthen momentum across the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins. The analyst suggested that clearing $78,000 would increase the likelihood of Bitcoin advancing toward new highs in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,013, up about 1.7% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency remained down 1.5%.
Featured image via Shutterstock
