Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) stock is likely to see further losses in the coming months, with a possible drop to $150 based on key technical indicators.
Notably, this bearish outlook comes as Amazon stock continues to struggle alongside the broader technology sector. At the close of Tuesday’s session, AMZN shares were trading at $207, down 1.4% for the day. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen almost 9%.
Amazon stock outlook
In this context, according to TradingShot’s assessment, the potential decline stems from the formation of a daily death cross, a technical event where the short-term moving average (MA) falls below the long-term MA, signalling the start of a broader downtrend.
At the same time, the weekly MACD has produced a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative momentum building in the stock.
In a TradingView post on March 24, the outlook indicated that there is a striking similarity to the setup seen ahead of the 2022 bear cycle. In both instances, Amazon entered a prolonged consolidation phase below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages following a peak formed in December.
The current cycle mirrors that sequence, with the stock topping in December 2025 and now trading in a comparable range during March 2026.
Notably, the previous cycle started with a December 2018 bottom, peaked in December 2021, and was followed by a sharp correction. The current structure mirrors this pattern, pointing to a potential extended decline.
The analysis also identified the $150 level as the next key downside target and likely support, as seen during the 2022 sell-off.
However, if macroeconomic pressures such as persistent inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical risks intensify, the stock could face a deeper correction.
In that scenario, a drawdown of about 56% could push the price toward $115, near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Overall, the alignment of bearish technicals and historical patterns suggests Amazon may be entering a critical phase, with late March 2027 as a possible window to test $150.
Why Amazon stock is struggling
In general, Amazon shares have stumbled in 2026, even as the S&P 500 has remained flat or slightly higher.
The main culprit has been elevated capital spending, with the American technology giant expected to invest about $200 billion into AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and cloud capacity in 2026, well above earlier forecasts.
While investors favor Amazon’s long-term AI strategy, the near-term impact on free cash flow and margins has weighed on sentiment, creating a “pay now, benefit later” overhang.
Meanwhile, some analysts believe Amazon is making the right moves for the next decade, but the stock is also facing pressure from stretched valuations after a strong 2025 run, with the forward P/E still hovering near 29x.
