Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) could fall to $300 by early January 2027, according to a technical analysis that points to the start of a major correction following the stock’s AI-driven rally.
AMD closed at $494.95 on July 27, 2026, implying a potential decline of about 39% from current levels.
The forecast, shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on July 28, comes after the stock pulled back from recent highs near $585 despite remaining one of the semiconductor sector’s top performers over the past year.
The bearish outlook is based on a long-term chart showing AMD trading within a rising channel that has been intact since late 2018.
According to the analyst, the stock may now be entering a correction phase after a strong advance from its March 2026 low.
The weekly chart shows AMD recently peaking near the upper boundary of its six-year channel up pattern before exhibiting signs of weakening momentum.
A key warning signal emerged from the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was rejected after briefly moving above a long-term resistance level that has capped previous cycle peaks. Similar RSI rejections in 2020, 2022, and 2024 were followed by significant pullbacks.
The analysis suggested that AMD is unlikely to revisit its monthly 100-period moving average or deeper Fibonacci retracement levels without a major company-specific catalyst.
Instead, TradingShot sees the most likely scenario as a decline toward the weekly 100-period moving average, represented by the green trend line on the chart.
AMD key price levels to watch
Based on the projected trajectory of that moving average, the analyst expects it to reach approximately $300 by the end of 2026 or early January 2027, providing a potential downside target for the current correction.
The outlook also highlighted previous declines of roughly 66% from major cycle peaks, although the current forecast does not anticipate a drop of that magnitude.
The technical forecast comes as AMD continues to deliver strong results driven by artificial intelligence demand.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported revenue of $10.3 billion, up 38% year over year, while data center revenue surged 57% to $5.8 billion.
Non-GAAP earnings per share rose 43% to $1.37, and management guided for approximately $11.2 billion in second-quarter revenue.
Investor sentiment has also been supported by AMD’s recent Advancing AI 2026 event, where the company unveiled its Helios rack-scale AI platform, next-generation EPYC processors, Instinct AI accelerators, and expanded partnerships with major technology companies.
