With Bitcoin (BTC) attempting to reclaim the $90,000 resistance zone, analysis by a trading expert suggests that the asset is likely to see a correction in the coming months.
Indeed, the TradingShot outlook shared in a TradingView post on January 28 indicated that a possible drop to $45,000 can be derived from the view that Bitcoin’s current market structure is increasingly mirroring the 2022 bear cycle.
The analysis compares Bitcoin’s 2022 daily chart with its developing 2026 structure, showing that key moving-average (MA) reactions are aligning almost step by step. Bitcoin has already faced a rejection at the 100-day moving average, closely matching the March 2022 rejection that preceded the final bear-market leg.
Price is now advancing toward a retest of the 200-day moving average, which in 2022 acted as the final ceiling before a sustained breakdown. In that prior cycle, Bitcoin briefly stabilized after the MA100 rejection, retested support, then rallied into the MA200 before rolling over sharply.
The 2026 projection follows the same sequence, with the rebound toward the long-term average expected to fail near the $100,000 area based on the current position of the MA200.
Bitcoin key price levels to watch
If this rejection plays out, the historical fractal points to a multi-stage decline through successive supports, first near $70,000, then around $51,000–$52,000, and ultimately toward $45,000, mirroring the proportional depth of the 2022 bear-market low.
By aligning the timing of the two cycles, the spacing between moving-average rejections and final lows suggests the sell-off could culminate in early October 2026, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is tracking a broader cyclical pattern rather than reacting to a single indicator.
The outlook comes as Bitcoin climbed above $89,000 on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and soaring gold prices, which bolstered demand for alternative assets.
The dollar hovered near four-year lows, while gold hit record highs above $5,200 an ounce. However, Bitcoin remained largely rangebound, trading between $88,000 and $89,000, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Traders are watching for signals on future interest rate cuts, with lower rates potentially boosting non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $89,892, having gained over 2% in the last 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the cryptocurrency is up 1.4%.
At the current price, Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly on its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,133. This indicates the market is in a short-term balance zone: price is neither clearly breaking higher nor decisively losing support.
The more important signal comes from the 200-day SMA at $104,551, which is well above the current price. That gap suggests Bitcoin remains in a longer-term corrective or consolidation phase, with the broader trend still under pressure until price can reclaim that level.
The 14-day RSI at 45.46 reinforces this view. An RSI below 50 but not near oversold territory indicates weak to neutral momentum; selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not yet taken control. In simple terms, Bitcoin is resting rather than rebounding.
Featured image via Shutterstock
