A trading expert has stated that Bitcoin (BTC) investors should expect the asset to hit the $100,000 mark, but only after a sharp sell-off.
According to an analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on April 10, the analyst noted that while there is still room for the asset to rebound, Bitcoin remains in a prolonged bearish phase despite a modest recovery following recent macro developments.
The asset has been consolidating for about two months since its February low, but the recovery remains weak, failing to challenge prior highs and reinforcing a broader downtrend.
The analysis places the current phase within a six-month bear cycle that could extend another six months. Based on a Fibonacci Channel model and patterns from the 2018 and 2022 cycles, which saw deep corrections, the current cycle could lead to a total drawdown of around 70% before bottoming.
Key technical levels highlighted include a potential interim low near $47,000, aligned with the 350-week moving average (MA), and a deeper downside target around $38,000 near the 500-week moving average. These levels are consistent with prior cycle bottoms, where long-term moving averages acted as critical support zones.
After this corrective phase, the structure points to a gradual recovery, with Bitcoin rebuilding momentum over time, reclaiming key resistance levels, and eventually pushing toward six figures.
Under this outlook, the $100,000 target is likely part of a longer recovery cycle, with late 2026 to early 2027 as the most probable window if historical trends and technical signals hold.
Bitcoin price analysis
This outlook comes as Bitcoin continues its modest rebound. By press time, the cryptocurrency was valued at $72,675, gaining about 0.7% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the asset is up over 8%.
Overall, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shown resilience this week, rising from lows near $68,000 earlier in April. On Friday, April 10, BTC reached an intraday high of approximately $73,440 before settling around the $72,000 range.
Technically, Bitcoin is hovering just below a key resistance zone around $73,000 and $73,100. A clean breakout above this level could open the door to further gains toward $76,000 or higher in the short term, while support sits near $70,000 and $71,000.
Notably, the rebound can be attributed to strong inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded significant net inflows earlier in the week, with one session seeing nearly $471 million, the highest daily total since February.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments’ offering led the charge, signaling continued institutional appetite even amid price consolidation.
A reported U.S.–Iran ceasefire announcement also provided a tailwind for risk assets, helping BTC recover from sub-$69,000 levels.
