As Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock experiences volatile trading sessions, a trading expert has warned that the equity is overvalued and could potentially crash to $110 in the coming months.
Notably, the American semiconductor giant closed Friday’s session at $198, down 0.5% for the day, while remaining up about 5% year-to-date.
Nvidia stock outlook
Regarding the stock’s outlook, an analysis shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on May 1 highlighted the potential for a sharp decline due to Nvidia’s long-term cyclical patterns, weakening momentum indicators, and historical similarities to the company’s previous major corrections.
According to the analysis, Nvidia has traded within a decade-long upward channel defined by recurring bullish and bearish cycles.
The analyst believes the stock is now entering a new bearish phase following the end of the 2023–2025 bull cycle, with the current sideways consolidation since the October 2025 peak resembling patterns seen before the sharp corrections of 2018 and 2022.
TradingShot’s outlook also pointed to a developing double-top formation near recent highs, similar to the September 2018 setup that preceded a steep decline.
At the same time, the monthly RSI remains near the overbought 70 level, historically associated with weakening momentum before major pullbacks.
Previous Nvidia bear cycles ended after the RSI fell toward the 42 support region, with the stock bottoming near the 200-week moving average and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Based on the current trajectory of the 200-week moving average, the analysis projects Nvidia could fall to around $110 by mid-September 2026, representing a decline of roughly 57% from the projected cycle top.
Nvidia stock fundamentals
Despite the grim outlook, Nvidia continues to benefit from strong demand for its GPUs and AI technologies.
In fiscal 2026 results ended January 2026, the company reported record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year, while full-year revenue rose 65% to $215.9 billion. Data Center revenue, the core of its AI business, reached $62.3 billion in the final quarter.
Nvidia has also expanded through major partnerships and strategic initiatives, including Pentagon AI contracts alongside Microsoft and Amazon, as well as projects in nuclear energy, defense, healthcare, and quantum AI. Hyperscaler demand remains strong despite supply constraints and rising competition from big tech firms developing in-house AI chips.
Investors are now focused on Nvidia’s next earnings report on May 20, 2026, which could act as a major catalyst.
Confidence remains high that continued AI spending and Nvidia’s growing full-stack AI ecosystem will support further growth, despite the stock trading at a premium valuation of about 35 to 40 times forward earnings.
