A trading expert has projected that Palantir Technologies’ (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock could crash to $43 in the coming months if historical patterns repeat.
Such a move would represent a roughly 67% decline from the last closing price of $133. Year-to-date, PLTR shares have already plunged more than 60%.
PLTR share price outlook
Regarding the price outlook, analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on February 17 indicated that the projected drop can be derived from PLTR’s weekly chart.
In this line, the stock’s technical setup shows it breaking below its 50-week moving average (MA), a move the analyst argues confirms the start of a new bear cycle.
TradingShot noted that the current setup mirrors the 2021–2022 downturn, when a break below the 50-week MA coincided with a weakening weekly RSI that slid within a descending channel and fell below 30, ultimately leading to an almost 80% drop in about six months.
A similar RSI pattern is now forming, with momentum trending lower. At the same time, Fibonacci analysis places the 0.786 retracement near $82.50, an area where PLTR could find interim support, potentially alongside a test of the 200-week MA as RSI nears oversold levels.
However, if the previous fractal fully repeats, the stock could decline roughly 80% from its peak, implying a bear market bottom around $43, potentially by early February 2027.
After being one of the top performers of the 2023–2025 AI-driven rally, Palantir now faces a decisively bearish weekly outlook following the technical breakdown and weakening momentum.
PLTR stock fundamentals
Overall, the stock has had a rough run in 2026 amid lingering concerns about valuation. Notably, the pullback contrasts with the company’s latest financial results.
Palantir reported exceptional fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, with revenue surging 70% year over year to $1.41 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, and U.S. commercial revenue jumping 137%.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.48 billion, up 56%, while the company generated record profits and maintained strong margins, including a Rule of 40 score of 127% in Q4, highlighting elite growth and efficiency.
Additionally, Palantir issued optimistic guidance for 2026, projecting revenue of approximately $7.18–$7.20 billion, or about 61% growth, alongside even faster expansion in its U.S. commercial segment.
The Artificial Intelligence Platform continues to drive adoption across enterprises and government clients, with analysts praising the company’s moat in operational AI and decision-making tools.
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