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TSM stock earnings forecast; Why analysts are bullish

TSM stock earnings forecast; Why analysts are bullish

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), having seen a significant rise in 2024, is set to publish its earnings report for the first quarter of the year on April 18.

The microchip manufacturer finds itself in an odd position given that the analysts’ earnings-per-share (EPS) outlook hints at bearish expectations given that it is set at $1.29 – lower than the $1.31 in the same period one year earlier, and below the $1.44 in the final trimester of 2023.

This might appear odd given TSMC’s crucial position in – and therefore the ability to benefit from – the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom that has seen firms like Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) surge multiple hundreds of percent in a handful of months.

Indeed, as the biggest semiconductor contract manufacturer, TSMC has itself seen significant growth in 2024 and, according to April 10 figures, recorded $6.1 billion in revenue in March alone – a 34.3% year-on-year (YoY) growth and the fastest pace since November 2022.

Are analysts really bearish on TSMC?

Despite the positive developments, the relatively weak short-term forecast is partially due to TSMC’s aggressive expansion efforts which have, in their latest chapter, seen a CHIPS act-backed plan to open a plant in Arizona and move microchip production onto U.S. shores.

Longer-term, however, analysts are seeing little other than strong performance for TSM stock with forecasts for subsequent quarters of 2024 reaching as high as $1.91 at the time of publication.

This bullishness is also seen in TSMC’s rating – logged as ‘strong buy’ on TradingView – as well as the 12-month price targets which would see the chipmaker climb up to 27.72% to $188 per share. 

It is noteworthy, however, that the average forecast, despite the stock boasting no ‘sell’ and few ‘neutral’  ratings, only forecasts a 1.23% upside and some experts consider a 32.07% drop within 52 weeks as possible.

TSM stock analyst rating. Source: TradingView

TSM stock price chart

Whether the analysts are right with their show-term low and long-term high EPS forecasts, the fact remains that, so far TSMC has been having a very strong year. 

In the stock market, TSM shares have risen 44.98% since the start of 2024.

TSM stock YTD price chart. Source: Google

The more recent performance, on the other hand, has shown a definitive slowdown despite the trend still being positive. On the monthly chart, TSM is 1.94% in the green while the weekly chart shows a 5.14% rise.

TSMC stock price today stands at $146.30 after a 0.70% extended session decline from the latest closing price of $147.20.

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