After a troubling run in 2025, shares of American insurance giant UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) are entering their historically most powerful seasonal stretch.
Data from charting platform TrendSpider shows that October and November have been the stock’s strongest months over the past two decades, with win rates of 70% and 75%, respectively.
Notably, UnitedHealth stock has seen strong momentum in the past month rising by over 11% to close the session at $344.
Adding weight to the bullish case is the backing of well-known superinvestors, including Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and David Tepper, who continue to see long-term value in healthcare.
This favorable setup comes at a critical time for UNH shares which have endured a turbulent 2025 marked by earnings disappointments, guidance cuts, and sharp share price declines.
For instance, earlier this year, the company shocked investors by suspending its full-year outlook, citing surging medical costs tied to higher Medicare Advantage utilization.
UnitedHealth reinstates guidance
Although guidance was later reinstated, it came in significantly lower than Wall Street had expected, with adjusted EPS targets reset to at least $16. These revisions, however, contributed to the stock recording another sharp decline in late July.
Interestingly, revenue growth has remained resilient, climbing about 13% year-over-year in the second quarter to roughly $111.6 billion, but soaring operating expenses, up nearly 17%, have compressed margins.
As expected, the stock has reflected these difficulties, plunging to multi-year lows in mid-2025 and erasing more than 40% of its value from earlier highs.
This correction brought UnitedHealth to levels not seen in almost five years, shaking confidence in its defensive profile.
Overall, if UnitedHealth can manage costs effectively and deliver steadier earnings, the stock may indeed be set for its strongest run of the year.
But if medical costs remain elevated and guidance once again proves shaky, downside risks will continue to weigh on investor confidence.
Featured image via Shutterstock
