Wall Street analyst Bob Brackett of Bernstein has set a new 2030 gold price forecast, arguing that the precious metal is likely to reclaim the $5,000 level.
In a note published on September 21, the analyst projected gold could reach $5,600 per ounce by 2030, maintaining a bullish long-term outlook despite lowering his previous target of $6,100.
The adjustment comes as expectations for U.S. interest rates have shifted significantly, with markets now pricing in additional rate hikes instead of the cuts previously anticipated.
According to Bernstein, the updated forecast reflects a higher real-rate environment. Real interest rates have climbed to about 2.7% from roughly 1.7% earlier this year, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Even so, the firm believes gold can continue appreciating alongside gradually rising real rates. The view is based on the metal’s resilience over the past several years, including periods when tighter monetary policy would traditionally have pressured prices lower.
Bernstein continues to view central bank gold buying as the most important structural catalyst supporting long-term prices.
The firm argued that many major reserve holders remain underallocated to gold compared to historical standards.
Countries including China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia hold less than 10% of their reserves in gold, leaving room for further diversification away from the U.S. dollar and other major reserve currencies.
Central bank gold accumulation
This thesis is supported by broader industry surveys where World Gold Council’s latest central bank reserve survey found that a large majority of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next year, while many also anticipate a declining share of dollar-denominated reserves.
The trend has become one of the strongest pillars of the gold bull market since 2022, helping offset periods of ETF outflows and higher bond yields.
Gold has historically shown an inverse relationship with real interest rates. Rising yields generally make fixed-income assets more attractive than gold because the metal does not generate income.
However, Bernstein noted that gold ETF holdings have remained broadly stable this year, while prices have stayed resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike. The firm sees continued investor demand, supported by central bank purchases, reserve diversification, and persistent fiscal concerns.
The biggest risk to the forecast is a slowdown in central bank buying. Bernstein also warned that elevated energy prices could keep inflation high and prompt additional rate hikes, creating headwinds for gold through a stronger dollar and higher bond yields.
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