SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) received its first major bearish call from Wall Street after CFRA initiated coverage of the aerospace giant with a ‘Sell’ rating and a $115 price target.
The update follows SpaceX’s record-breaking initial public offering (IPO), which raised $75 billion after the company priced 555.6 million shares at $135 each, giving it an initial valuation of about $1.8 trillion.
Shares opened at $150 on June 12, climbed as high as $176 during trading, and closed at approximately $160.95, representing a gain of nearly 19% from the IPO price. The rally pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization above $2 trillion.
According to CFRA analyst Keith Snyder, the company’s current valuation already reflects substantial long-term optimism despite significant execution risks across several of its key business segments.
The analyst cited an unfavorable risk-reward profile driven by elevated growth expectations, heavy capital investment requirements, and reliance on the successful commercialization of major projects, particularly Starlink.
CFRA also raised concerns about SpaceX’s dependence on external financing and the possibility that investors are assigning excessive value to future growth initiatives before meaningful profitability has been established.
The report highlighted risks related to Starship development, satellite deployment, artificial intelligence infrastructure investments, data centers, and other capital-intensive projects.
CFRA argued that delays, cost overruns, regulatory hurdles, or slower-than-expected monetization could pressure future returns.
Wall Street cautious on SPCX stock price
Despite CFRA’s bearish outlook, Wall Street remains divided on SpaceX stock.
Based on two analyst ratings over at TipRanks, SpaceX currently carries a ‘Hold’ consensus. One analyst recommends buying the stock, while the other recommends selling.
Analyst forecast data shows an average 12-month SpaceX stock price target of $152.50, implying about 5.25% downside. The highest target stands at $190, while the lowest target is CFRA’s $115 forecast.
Concerns about SpaceX valuation
The forecast range highlights the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s valuation following its blockbuster market debut. The bullish case implies upside of nearly 18% from current levels, while the bearish scenario suggests a decline of more than 28%.
SpaceX’s public market debut has fueled debate over whether the company’s multitrillion-dollar valuation can be justified by future growth opportunities.
Bullish analysts point to SpaceX’s leadership in reusable rockets, the continued expansion of the Starlink satellite internet network, and emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence infrastructure and space-based services.
However, skeptics argue that SpaceX stock trades at a lofty valuation and faces substantial execution risks across multiple growth initiatives.
Concerns also remain about the timeline for Starship commercialization and the significant capital expenditures required to support the company’s long-term ambitions.
