Recent rounds of escalations in the Middle East – particularly Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel on Saturday, April 13, and Israel’s response in the night between April 18 and 19 – have, to an extent, cast doubt on the likely reactions of the assets usually considered safe havens for wealth.
Indeed, the Saturday attack in particular saw the price of gold, silver, and Bitcoin (BTC) collapse – though most have recovered since – and the Israeli strikes on Isfahan, Iran, as well as in Syria, had some, though more limited, impact.
Having already examined how Bitcoin and gold might react should the worst-case scenario play out, Finbold decided to consult OpenAI’s flagship artificial intelligence (AI) platform – ChatGPT – on what might happen to silver in case of an even hotter and even broader regional war.
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ChatGPT assesses silver’s wartime prospects
After being fed silver’s April price chart, ChatGPT assessed that should the ultimate escalatory response come swiftly – as the Iranian President warned it would – the price of silver is likely to take an immediate shock and drop to approximately $26.
The AI, however, also believes that the drop would only be the result of the initial shock and that silver would stabilize relatively quickly, potentially even reaching $30 as the if the situation escalates, the supply of the critical industrial metal comes into question.
In the scenario in which open warfare isn’t imminent but is, nonetheless, coming, ChatGPT estimated that the shock of a declaration would be lower as investors would have time to price in the conflict.
While refraining from offering precise figures in this scenario, the AI estimates that silver would hit its pre-war resistance near $35 and could potentially climb higher as the situation escalates.
Finally, the most dangerous scenario, which would involve the participation of Syria, the U.S., and the U.K. – the three countries ChatGPT believes are the most likely to get dragged in once Lebanon, Iran, Israel, and Palestine are discounted – would see silver surge even higher.
Indeed, according to the AI, such an expanded war could see silver initially rise to between $35 and $40 and fluctuate between $37 and $45 throughout the conflict, maybe even testing $50.
Silver price chart
Whether the future brings an end to the ongoing war or a further expansion, silver has, so far, shown significant strength in 2024. Indeed, the commodity is up 19.24% year-to-date.
While the rise has been the most noticeable in the last 30 days as silver rapidly rose from approximately $25 to its press time price of $28.32, so has its vulnerability to geopolitical instability.
Indeed, the last 7 days of trading saw silver take two significant hits as, on the news of the Israeli attack, it fell from about $28 to $27, and six days earlier, when Iran launched its strike, it swiftly fell from $29.6 to about $27.9.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
