With multiple experts and outside observers voicing fears that 2024 could be the year of a widespread economic crash, including Robert Kiyosaki, a prominent investor and author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ many are wondering how correct these predictions are.
In this context, generative conversational artificial intelligence (AI) systems, like Gemini (formerly Bard), the recent innovation by Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), have gained significant traction, offering instrumental assistance in projecting general financial market forecasts.
To make use of these capabilities, Finbold asked Gemini if the global economy would collapse this year, and the chatbot provided a detailed explanation, taking into account the current geopolitical situation and experts’ opinions, from a viewpoint as of April 8, 2024.
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Total collapse unlikely
According to Gemini, “a complete collapse seems unlikely,” based on evidence such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting growth rates around 2.4% to 2.9%, and the World Economic Forum (WEF) reporting that “many economists expect a weakening but not necessarily a collapse.”
At the same time, the AI tool cited the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report that the United Nations released on January 8, 2024, which indicates that the agency expects the global economy to experience a modest slowdown, but also that it “remains on a path of recovery.”
Recession more likely
Meanwhile, in terms of particular elements that could factor in the unfolding economic situation, Gemini singled out the 2023 inflation, rising interest rates, and uneven economic growth across different regions, as well as citing a Bloomberg survey from December 2023.
Specifically, according to this survey, in which economists gave their answers regarding the possibility of a recession in 2024, 47% believe an economic recession is likely in 2024, whereas 19% of the interviewed experts stated that a recession is very likely, as opposed to a full-blown collapse.
Finally, Gemini concluded that:
“Whether or not the global economy collapses in 2024 depends on several factors, and most economists agree the outlook is uncertain. However, a collapse is unlikely, and a slowdown or recession is considered more likely.”
All things considered, the bleak prognoses of an economic crash might be on the right track, but the data assembled by Google’s AI suggests the situation might not be that desperate. That said, Gemini is still just a program, and predicting whether 2024 could see an economic crash coming is challenging.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
