The Brazilian Real (BRL) has recently experienced significant volatility against the U.S. Dollar (USD). Among relevant events, with potential impact in the forex trading, Brazil just announced an import tariff cut for certain goods.
As of this writing, $1 (USD) is changing hands for R$5.77 (BRL), according to ICE forex market. The Dollar is showing signs of weakness against the Brazilian Real, trading below the 50-day exponential moving average (1D 50-EMA).
At the same time, the leading U.S. dollar stablecoin, Tether’s USDT, is trading at a small premium on Binance. On that note, the USDT/BRL pair is priced at R$5.80, with yesterday’s candlestick making a significant wick.
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The Brazilian market was closed on March 3 and 4, due to local holidays, creating the observed volatility once reopened. USDT never stopped trading, as usual with the cryptocurrency and blockchain markets.
Brazil cuts some import tariffs to zero
According o a local report from R7 News, Brazil’s executive, Lula da Silva, removed all import tariffs from basic items. Impacted goods are red meat, coffee, sugar, corn, and olive oil.
This measure goes in the opposite direction of a global trend of countries raising tariffs against each other. Led by Donald Trump in the United States.
Besides this executive order at a federal level, the executive also asked Brazilian estates to remove all taxes from other basic items, for interstate trades. These cuts aim to help with the rising prices of goods, specially food, in the country, caused by different policies.
What AI has to say about the Brazilian Real against the Dollar (USD/BRL)
Looking for further insights on what is going on with the Brazilian Real and the Dollar in the USD/BRL pair, Finbold turned to Grok 3, an advanced artificial intelligence (AI) model.
Despite the short-term sign of strength, dating back from December 2024’s peak at R$6.31 per dollar, the BRL has been consistently weakening against the USD in the mid and long terms.
“Research suggests that Brazil’s economic difficulties, including higher inflation rates (around 4.56% in January 2025, with forecasts at 4.8% for the year) and concerns over fiscal management, are contributing to the depreciation. Despite higher interest rates in Brazil (13.25% in February 2025 compared to 4.50% in the US), the Real is still losing value, likely due to global economic pressures and domestic fiscal strain.”
— Grok 3 AI
In conclusion, Grok 3 AI forecasts the USD will trade in a range between R$5.23 and $6.44 against the BRL in 2025, expecting more volatility. Investors should, according to the AI, follow economic indicators in the country, specially the GDP, to evaluate their positions.
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