With gold recently embarking on a bullish run triggered by economic uncertainty stemming from escalating trade tensions, an analyst projects that the commodity has the potential to rally 425%.
The analysis by Northstar Charts posits that gold reaching $15,000 is “entirely reasonable,” based on historical trends between the precious metal and the United States M2 Money Supply, as well as technical indicators, according to an X post on February 7.
Gold’s price tends to surge following specific technical events, such as the Ichimoku Cloud indicator—a tool for spotting bull markets. History suggests a bullish reversal is imminent when gold trades below this cloud.
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The analysis pointed out that gold surged by an astonishing 600% after a similar technical setup occurred in the past. In the current cycle, gold has already climbed 50%, signaling the potential for a much larger move.
According to the expert, a comparable 600% gain could propel the yellow metal to the $15,000 mark. Adding fuel to the fire, the three-year moving average (MA) shows a downward trajectory, a hallmark of past gold bull eras.
At the same time, the analysis indicated that gold has historically tended to outperform the M2 Money Supply in specific market conditions, particularly when liquidity tightens and economic uncertainty looms.
Interestingly, the analysis doesn’t stop at $15,000. It projects that gold could double, then double again, before completing its bull cycle in the mid-2030s.
Notably, with gold possibly hitting $15,000, the commodity will likely maintain its position as the world’s most valuable asset, with its market cap potentially reaching at least $100 trillion.
What next for gold
Amid this prediction, gold has been hitting new highs as economic uncertainty remains elevated. This follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, such as new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which have prompted retaliatory actions from these countries.
At the same time, the recent highs of about $2,888 were also driven by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move.
Amid these conditions, analysts anticipate that the metal will likely target the next major milestone at $3,000. To this end, banking giant Citi (NYSE: C) raised its gold price target for the next three months to $3,000 per ounce from $2,800 while maintaining its 6-12 month forecast at $3,000. The firm also upgraded its 2025 average price outlook from $2,800 to $2,900 per ounce.
“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting EM official sector gold demand, and with global growth concerns (tariff and cycle related) set to raise ETF and OTC investment demand,” Citi stated.
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has also backed the possibility of gold reaching the $3,000 mark.
According to the expert, gold’s recent bullish momentum will likely see it outperform other assets, such as Bitcoin, which he expects to correct amid the current volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
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