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Will 2023 be the third ‘green’ year for September in Bitcoin’s history?

Will 2023 be the third ‘green’ year for September in Bitcoin’s history?

September is well-known as a negative month for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price performance, having only shown monthly gains in September 2015 and 2016. For all other years, the coming month was marked as historically favorable for the ‘bears’, instead of the ‘bulls’.

Historical data retrieved by Finbold from Coinglass shows Bitcoin’s price performance in September for each year since 2013:

  • 2013: -1.76%
  • 2014: -19.01%
  • 2015: +2.35%
  • 2016: +6.04%
  • 2017: -7.44%
  • 2018: -5.58%
  • 2019: -13.38%
  • 2020: -7.51%
  • 2021: -7.03%
  • 2022: -3.12%
Bitcoin monthy returns show September is a bad month for BTC's price.
Bitcoin Monthly returns (%) from 2013 to 2023. Source: Coinglass

Now, the market is trying to figure out what to expect for 2023’s September, considering that BTC had close to two years of a ‘bear market’, and positive expectations for a coming ‘bull market’ are growing as the Bitcoin halving approaches for 2024.

How will Bitcoin perform in September 2023?

Interestingly, the only two years that September was a positive month for Bitcoin, were low-volume years of price consolidation for the leading cryptocurrency, also following two negative months for BTC in August.

Although interesting, there are no patterns in ‘price consolidation years with losing Augusts, equals to September gains’. 2014 was also a year with low volatility when Bitcoin showed losses of -17.55% in August and was the worst year for September’s BTC, with a -19% red 1-month candlestick.

Something similar happened in 2019, as for a price consolidation year, with a negative August for Bitcoin, followed by the second worst year for September’s BTC, registering losses of over 13%.

With a lack of historical patterns, most price predictions using this inconclusive data are highly speculative, presenting a high risk for decision-making. Investors must understand all other factors that worked to determine BTC’s results for each month in each different year.

Bitcoin price analysis

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating at $26,045 (+0.37%) by press time, with a 24-hour volume lower than 3% of BTC’s market cap, with a $12 billion exchanging volume out of a $506 billion market capitalization. Marking a period of extremely low liquidity for all cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin price in August 22. What will happen in September?
BTC 1-day price chart. Source: Finbold

At the time of publication, August is a losing month for Bitcoin, with around 11% in losses.

The price-performance for the leading digital asset in both August and September will depend on further developments related to Bitcoin, as well as the general sentiment on the wider crypto and macroeconomic landscape.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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