Artificial intelligence (AI) titan Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has had a turbulent start to 2025, with its stock entering a pivotal week ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report.
Despite multiple attempts, Nvidia has struggled to reclaim and sustain a price above $150, weighed down by the DeepSeek-driven sell-off and broader bearish sentiment fueled by uncertainty over trade tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump.
However, NVDA has largely recovered from the DeepSeek turmoil, establishing firm support above $130. At the close of the most recent trading session, NVDA stock stood at $134.43, down over 4% on the day and nearly 3% year-to-date.
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Impact on Nvidia earnings on NVDA stock price
Now, with the highly anticipated earnings set for February 26, it remains to be seen whether Nvidia will attempt to break the $150 mark or extend its losses.
Ahead of the earnings, analysts at charting platform TrendSpider noted on February 22 that the equity faces a wall of resistance that has repeatedly rejected attempts to move higher.
Over the past several months, NVDA has formed multiple upper wicks, signaling that every push toward new highs has been met with aggressive selling. The $135 to $145 range is a battleground where sellers continue overpowering buyers, preventing the stock from sustaining a breakout.
This repeated rejection raises concerns that investors may once again use a strong earnings report as an opportunity to take profits rather than fuel further gains.
Another critical factor is the volume profile. While NVDA has witnessed notable activity between $100 and $130, providing some stability in this range, the analysis suggests weaker support below $100. Therefore, if earnings disappoint and trigger a sell-off, there may be little stopping NVDA from sliding toward lower levels.
Elsewhere, stock trading expert Peter DiCarlo cautioned that Nvidia’s stock may face a major sell-off. Despite recently reaching $140, he observed that weak buying pressure and a pattern of lower highs since November suggest a potential drop to the $110 to $112 zone.
He also pointed out that earnings could shift momentum, and breaking the $140 or $142 resistance could push NVDA to $170.
“We got the bounce to $140 as expected, but unfortunately, I think the rug is about to get pulled,” DicCarlo said.
NVDA’s ‘major risk event’
Market strategist Roy Mattox also echoed the significance of the upcoming earnings report, noting in an X post on February 23 that the results “might launch a convincing new uptrend or fuel further downside.” He labeled the earnings report “a major risk event.”
At the same time, investment strategist Shay Boloor emphasized the importance of Nvidia’s financial report, highlighting key factors that could drive the stock.
With Q4 revenue expected to jump 73% YoY and EPS rising to $0.82, Boloor stated that Nvidia’s AI dominance remains unchallenged, fueled by $320 billion in cloud investments from tech giants like Amazon.
However, he added that supply constraints have capped growth, while AI efficiency improvements—such as DeepSeek’s use of lower-cost Nvidia chips—could shift hyperscaler spending.
The strategist concluded that shares could soar if Nvidia reaffirms strong demand. But if AI capex trends shift toward cost-cutting, investors may need to rethink Nvidia’s long-term trajectory.
“Regardless of what happens in the near term, Nvidia remains the single most critical player in AI. <…> The question isn’t whether AI compute demand will grow — it’s whether Nvidia will continue capturing the lion’s share of that demand. And as the company prepares to unveil its latest results — that is the single most important narrative investors will be watching,” he said.
Wall Street analysts update NVDA stock price
Despite Nvidia’s recent pullback, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the chipmaker’s future. For instance, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya reiterated Nvidia as his top pick for 2025, maintaining a $190 price target.
He expects the company to reassure investors about its Blackwell execution and Fiscal Year 2026 outlook.
Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis upheld his $185 target, dismissing supply chain concerns as overblown. The expert believes fears of a weak quarter are exaggerated and remains confident in Nvidia’s trajectory.
Finally, Citi analysts lowered Nvidia’s price target to $163 while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating. Ahead of the upcoming earnings report, they forecast $38 billion in sales for the January quarter and $42.5 billion for April.
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