Following the U.S. military’s June 22 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, uncertainty has gripped global markets amid growing fears of a sell-off when trading resumes Monday.
The attack, part of Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion,” marks a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions and has fueled speculation over a possible Black Monday-style market crash.
“Black Monday” refers to a major stock market collapse on a Monday, typically triggered by panic selling. The most infamous occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones plunged 22%, the largest one-day drop in history.
Markets already showing stress include cryptocurrencies, which trade around the clock. Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped below $100,000, with over $200 million in liquidations recorded.
In contrast, Israeli stocks surged to record highs on Sunday, with investors viewing the U.S. strikes as a move likely to delay Iran’s nuclear program and reduce immediate regional threats by weakening its military infrastructure.
ChatGPT predicts stock market reaction to U.S. attacks
Finbold consulted ChatGPT, OpenAI’s AI model, to assess how markets might react on Monday. The model flagged a high probability of a sharp sell-off in U.S. equities.
While not predicting a full collapse, the model cited escalating geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and investor anxiety as key drivers of a potential risk-off event.
Already, warning signs are emerging: cryptocurrencies have seen heavy losses, oil is surging, and capital is moving into safe havens like gold, which is on pace to add a record $80 billion in 2025.
ChatGPT noted that if Iran or its proxies disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil, crude could surge past $100 per barrel. That would likely fuel inflation concerns and prompt central banks to maintain tighter policy, weighing further on equities.
A limited Iranian response may contain the fallout, but direct attacks on U.S. or Gulf energy infrastructure could trigger broad market panic. Investors are already repositioning ahead of the Monday open, with gold gaining and the dollar strengthening, signs of growing unease.
Scale of stock market correction
Still, a full-scale Black Monday isn’t a certainty. Historically, markets drop 5% to 6% during geopolitical shocks but recover within weeks if escalation is avoided.
If the conflict deepens or drags on, a steeper correction, potentially 15% to 20%, remains possible. Energy, global trade, and high-growth tech stocks would be most exposed.
For now, ChatGPT expects a sharp but limited sell-off, likely in the 5 to 10% range, unless Iran’s response triggers a broader regional or energy crisis.
Featured image from Shutterstock
