Summary
⚈ Post-election optimism under President Trump and anticipation of a spot XRP ETF have added fuel to XRP’s recent breakout above $2.
⚈ A proposed May 2025 settlement could officially end the years-long legal battle and open the door to institutional inflows.
Since its first major legal victory in the Ripple v. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) case, XRP’s market cap has more than tripled, driven by optimism around the legal clarity and broader bullish sentiment in the crypto space.
On July 13, 2023, District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors on public exchanges.
This landmark decision marked a turning point not just for Ripple but for the entire cryptocurrency industry, which had closely followed the SEC’s lawsuit since it began in December 2020.
Following that ruling, XRP’s market performance has been outstanding. Finbold research uncovered that between July 13, 2023, and May 12, 2025, the token added an average of $148 million per day to its market capitalization. At the time of the decision, XRP ended the day priced at $0.81 with a market cap of $42.35 billion.
As of Monday, May 12, 2025, 669 days later, XRP was trading at $2.43, a 200% price increase. Its market cap has jumped to $141.96 billion, a $99.61 billion gain, or 235%. This equals $4.53 billion in monthly inflows and $1.04 billion weekly on average.
Ripple’s victories in SEC case
While the July 2023 ruling was pivotal, Ripple secured other key legal wins in the controversial court battle. For instance, in October 2023, the SEC’s attempt to appeal Judge Torres’s ruling was denied.
Then, in April 2024, the court found that Ripple’s institutional XRP sales did not fully constitute unregistered securities offerings. These rulings provided additional short-term boosts to XRP’s price.
However, XRP’s rise wasn’t fueled by legal clarity alone. Broader market sentiment, especially after the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, also played a crucial role. The election of a crypto-friendly administration signaled a shift in regulatory tone, helping the token break through the long-standing $1 resistance level.
True to expectations under President Donald Trump, the SEC has moved to resolve the case. On May 8, 2025, a proposed settlement was submitted to the U.S. District Court, outlining a $50 million payment from Ripple to the SEC and the return of $75 million in escrowed funds to the company.
The agreement also seeks to lift an injunction against Ripple. Once approved, both parties are expected to dismiss their appeals, including Ripple’s challenge to the fine.
Unlocking more capital inflow into XRP
With the case nearing its end, many market watchers believe this could unlock a new wave of capital inflows into XRP.
In particular, hopes are rising that the SEC could soon approve a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Notably, in late April, the agency extended its review of Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF application to June 17, 2025, an action analysts see as procedural.
If approved, the ETF could attract institutional interest and drive a price reaction similar to Bitcoin’s (BTC) post-ETF surge. Meanwhile, the SEC has until mid-October to decide on other pending applications.
Featured image via Shutterstock
