Although XRP has experienced significant capital outflows over the past week, technical indicators suggest the asset could still reach a record high of $12.50 in the coming months.
This ambitious target is tied to XRP’s breakout from a long-standing consolidation range that spanned from December 2024 to June 2025, according to insights shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on July 25.
The analyst noted that this current setup closely mirrors the triangle pattern that preceded XRP’s explosive rally in late 2017. Both patterns were supported by price action along the 50-week moving average (MA50) and the two standard deviations (Stdev) band from the Bollinger Bands model.
Examining past cycles, the analyst noted that in 2018, XRP peaked near the 3 standard deviation (Stdev) band, while the 2021 cycle encountered resistance around the 2 Stdev band.
Based on this cyclical behavior, the current move appears to be targeting the same 2 Stdev level, now intersecting with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which points to a price around $12.50.
This projection assumes that XRP will, at the very least, revisit the same relative technical threshold it reached during its last market peak. If current momentum holds, the asset could reach this level by year-end.
XRP’s short-term correction
Amid the bullish outlook, it’s worth noting that XRP’s recent rally fell short of breaking through the key $4 resistance zone. This pullback was exacerbated by bearish whale activity and a surge in long position liquidations.
Specifically, a wallet linked to Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen moved over 50 million XRP, with a $140 million sent to exchanges. One large transaction on July 24 alone involved 42 million XRP, triggering a sharp sell-off.
This selling pressure contributed to the third-largest XRP long liquidation event on Binance this year, wiping out roughly $86 million within a matter of hours.
Despite the turbulence, on-chain data shows a contrasting trend of whale accumulation. Currently, 2,743 wallets hold over 1 million XRP each, amounting to a combined total of 47.32 billion tokens, or about 4.4% of XRP’s circulating supply.
XRP price analysis
At press time, XRP was trading at $3.16, up over 3% in the past 24 hours, although it has dropped nearly 9% over the past week.
Notably, XRP’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) currently stands at 61.49, indicating solid buying pressure without signaling overbought conditions.
Supporting the uptrend, the asset is trading well above both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.51 and its 200-day SMA of $1.84, indicating strength across both short-term and long-term trends.
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