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AI predicts 95% chance Tesla stock to be above this price after earnings

AI predicts 95% chance Tesla stock to be above this price after earnings
Darija Gvozderac

Tesla‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has faced challenges this year amid a slowdown in the industry and declining sales, resulting in the lowest delivery figures since 2022 in the first quarter.

Despite this prolonged decline, recent performance suggests Tesla’s stock may have the opportunity to break out and reverse some losses. Technical analysis (TA) indicates the formation of a falling wedge pattern – a chart pattern that often signaling a potential trend reversal.

Improved inflation figures could boost Tesla’s sales and stock performance, alleviating concerns about price uncertainty impacting the electric vehicle (EV) industry’s growth.

However, challenges persist for the EV industry, including fears of early adopters purchasing inferior products at a premium. Whether inflation figures will significantly impact Tesla’s performance remains uncertain.

AI model predicts TSLA stock price after earnings

During the discussions following the decline, OptionRecom, a platform focused on enhancing options trading strategies for minimized risk, utilized X (formerly Twitter) to disclose the forecasts provided by its artificial intelligence (AI) model for Tesla later this month.

Their model predicts a 95% chance of Tesla remaining above $145 until April 26. In line with the potential breakout suggested by the technical analysis.

Tesla stock price chart. Source: TrendSpider

Interestingly, a 145/135 bull put spread for April 26 at a premium of $145 on April 2. Due to market adjustments by April 9, the cost to enter the same position had dropped significantly to $67. 

This decrease reflects the market’s shifting outlook on Tesla’s short-term price ceiling, particularly in light of the company’s upcoming earnings report scheduled for April 23.

Tesla stock price chart

Regardless of future actions by the Federal Reserve (FED) and other factors, Tesla has experienced a significant downturn in the stock market since the beginning of 2024. 

Year-to-date, Elon Musk‘s EV company has seen its shares decrease by 28.80%, falling from around $248.42 on January 2 to their most recent closing price of $176.88 on April 9.

Tesla stock 30-day chart. Source: Finbold

Despite a substantial year-to-date decline, Tesla’s stock price has shown recent signs of a potential turnaround. Over the last five trading days, the share price has grown by 7.18%. 

This upward movement follows a period of relative stagnation, with a minor increase of 0.04% observed in the previous month. Tesla’s stock, by showing a potential reversal with a falling wedge pattern and poised for a breakout if the upcoming CPI report indicates a slowdown in inflation, could bolster its sales and stock performance.

However, sustained momentum is necessary to overcome the year-to-date slump and navigate the ongoing challenges within the EV industry.

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