Despite supportive fundamentals such as the resolution of the legal battle between Ripple and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and the rollout of spot XRP ETFs in the U.S., the asset has struggled to break above $3.
Indeed, the asset has been swayed by broader market volatility, with investor sentiment oscillating as XRP focuses on hitting key milestone prices such as a record high above $4 and $5.
At the same time, there is anticipation that the asset could aim higher at target levels such as $10, representing an upside of about 370% from current values.
Odds of XRP hitting $10 in 2026
Against this backdrop, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT model to set odds of XRP hitting $10 in 2026. According to the model’s estimates, there is an 18% probability that XRP trades at $10 at any point this year.
The model characterized such an outcome as possible but unlikely, framing it as an extreme bull-case scenario rather than a central expectation for the year.
According to the AI’s assessment, a move to $10 would likely require a full-scale cryptocurrency bull market, with Bitcoin (BTC) pushing to new all-time highs and capital rotating aggressively into large-cap altcoins.
The scenario also depends on sustained global regulatory clarity that positions XRP as a compliant, institution-friendly asset, alongside tangible growth in XRP-linked payment volumes and institutional usage rather than purely speculative inflows.
Under such conditions, narrative-driven momentum could propel XRP beyond its fundamentals, but a $10 price would imply a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion, placing it among the largest crypto assets ever.
However, the model noted several constraints, including XRP’s large circulating supply, which limits upside compared with smaller tokens, and the fact that past growth in network utility has not consistently translated into exponential price gains.
Competitive pressure from stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and alternative settlement layers further caps long-term valuation expansion, while crypto bull markets have historically concentrated capital into fewer assets than many retail investors expect.
In its probability framework, ChatGPT assigned a 55% likelihood to a base case in which XRP trades in a $2 to $4 range through 2026, while a stronger bull case placing XRP between $5 and $7 carries a 27% probability.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was valued at $2.09, up 0.27% in the past 24 hours, while on a weekly basis, the asset has rallied over 4%.
Notably, the token is trading slightly above its 50-day SMA of $2.03, suggesting modest short-term support and potential for near-term stabilization, but well below the 200-day SMA of $2.57, indicating a longer-term downtrend and resistance to a sustained recovery.
The 14-day RSI at 54.14 remains neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, implying balanced momentum without strong buying or selling pressure and leaving room for consolidation ahead of any directional move.
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