Bitcoin (BTC) has had a bumpy start to October, with the much-anticipated “Uptober” rally getting off to a slow beginning. However, despite this sluggish start, an analyst sees two major peaks on the horizon, suggesting that Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory remains intact.
After briefly dipping below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded sharply, reclaiming $63,000. This recovery, coupled with promising technical indicators and macroeconomic factors, signals that bulls are still in control, especially with the release of China’s fiscal policy update.
Bitcoin is now approaching key price levels, and market momentum is likely to shift based on technical factors and historical patterns. As noted by Cryptocon in an X post on October 11, these dynamics could prove pivotal in shaping Bitcoin’s next moves.
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“The cycle top signal has been incredibly accurate.Two 9 flashes down, two more to go”.
CryptoCon
Bitcoin’s key technical indicators point to major peaks
At the core of Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook is the Consecutive Candles 9’s (CC9) indicator, a tool derived from the TD Sequential system, renowned for predicting crucial market inflection points.
This indicator helps identify when the market is nearing extreme overbought or oversold conditions, signaling potential reversals or significant price movements.
According to the analysis, in the current cycle, Bitcoin has already flashed two of the four key signals that mark its cycle progression.
The First Mid-Cycle High occurred in early 2023, followed by the Second Mid-Cycle High in 2024, as Bitcoin’s price continued to recover and consolidate.
Bitcoin is now heading toward the First Cycle Top, projected to occur between late 2024 and early 2025, potentially pushing the price toward the critical $70,000 level. Surpassing this psychological barrier could trigger Bitcoin’s final parabolic rally.
Drawing parallels from Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles in 2013 and 2017 strengthens this outlook. In both cycles, Bitcoin exhibited similar patterns, with major peaks followed by a sharp, final rally.
If history repeats itself, the ultimate Cycle Top could occur by mid to late 2025, with Bitcoin potentially reaching between $140,000 and $240,000 before entering a corrective phase.
Factors fueling optimism
Several macroeconomic and technical factors are contributing to the favorable outlook for Bitcoin. Concerns over rising U.S. inflation, fueled by hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data, initially rattled markets.
However, investors have shifted their focus from short-term risks to potential long-term growth drivers.
A key development on the horizon is China’s fiscal policy update, which could have far-reaching implications for global finance and the cryptocurrency market.
Additionally, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) recently announced its ambitious plan to transform into the world’s first “Bitcoin bank” sparking renewed investor interest.
This announcement has driven a surge in MicroStrategy’s stock price, reflecting the broader market’s growing optimism about Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin’s path forward
Despite a slower-than-expected start to October’s rally, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains bullish, with major peaks still anticipated. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,199, reflecting a 2% gain over the last 24 hours and a 1.5% rise over the past week.
In a best-case scenario, AI predictions estimate that Bitcoin’s price could land between $80,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2024.
In summary, Bitcoin’s resilience amid short-term volatility and macroeconomic pressures reaffirms its standing as a leading digital asset, with the next 12 to 18 months poised to be crucial in shaping its growth trajectory.
