Bitcoin (BTC) has flashed a new bearish signal after forming a one-hour death cross, a technical pattern that has historically preceded short-term declines.
Based on previous occurrences over the past two months, analysis by TradingShot in a TradingView post on July 14 indicated that the latest signal could send Bitcoin toward $60,200, with a deeper decline potentially extending to $57,250.
At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $62,600 after the one-hour death cross appeared on July 14. The signal marks the fourth such occurrence in the past two months and the first since June 19.
A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average, signaling weakening momentum and a possible trend reversal.
According to the analysis, every one-hour death cross recorded since May has been followed by a notable decline.
On May 27, Bitcoin fell immediately after the signal appeared, while the May 13 and June 19 death crosses were followed by brief relief rallies before the downtrend resumed.
The analysis also showed a recurring pattern of lower highs ahead of each death cross, highlighting weakening buying pressure.
Previous one-hour death crosses have resulted in declines ranging from 6.79% to 11.40%. Based on that historical performance, Bitcoin could fall to around $60,200 in a moderate downside scenario or as low as $57,250 if the larger decline repeats.
The outlook suggests BTC may stage a short-lived bounce before moving lower, similar to the price action seen after the May 13 and June 19 signals.
Bitcoin struggles to break past $64,000
Adding to the bearish outlook, Bitcoin has struggled to break a series of lower highs since early July, with the latest rejection occurring near the $64,400 resistance level before the death cross formed.
The bearish signal arrives as Bitcoin faces heightened market uncertainty, with investors weighing softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data against concerns over a large government crypto transfer.
June CPI fell 0.4%, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%, while core inflation eased to 2.6%, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve and supporting risk assets.
However, optimism was tempered after the U.S. government transferred approximately 3,940 BTC worth about $244 million, alongside more than 30,000 ETH, to Coinbase Prime.
Although similar transfers have not always resulted in immediate sales, the move raised concerns about additional supply entering the market.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,854, up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and 1.3% on the week.
Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin remains under technical pressure, trading below both its 50-day SMA of $64,641 and 200-day SMA of $73,785. Remaining below these key moving averages suggests the broader trend is still bearish, with sellers retaining control.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 45.69, indicating neutral momentum. While not yet in oversold territory, the indicator remains below the bullish 50 level, pointing to subdued buying strength.
