Bitcoin (BTC) started January 2025 with a bullish outlook, which was later reversed into a bearish formation, bringing market uncertainty. Finbold then looked into Bitcoin historical returns and price patterns to forecast a potential target for January 31.
Previously, BTC closed December and November 2024 with 2.85% losses and 37.29% gains, respectively, following the expected results.
In November, we published the BTC price prediction targeting a monthly close between $75,275 and $100,334, while the leading cryptocurrency was trading at $69,495. Bitcoin closed November 30 at $96,451, validating the method.
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Nevertheless, December’s results came slightly worse than predicted, missing our forecasted range of $94,782 and $101,273. BTC closed 2024 at $93,401, but still within the now adjusted historical median for the month.
Bitcoin historical returns in January since 2013
As January develops, Finbold again retrieved data from Coinglass, calculating Bitcoin’s average and median historical returns for each month.
Notably, BTC’s monthly performance in January, dating back from 2013, has accumulated 3.06% gains on average. However, with six negative years out of twelve, January also has a median return of minus 0.04%. These returns are measured from opening to closing, or January 1 to 31.
For example, Bitcoin’s historical best January was in 2013, up 44.05%. Something similar also happened in 2023, with 39.63% gains, after a 3.59%-losing December 2022.
Conversely, 2015 was January’s worst year after one of December’s worst yearly performance in 2014, with -33.05% and -15.11%, respectively. Overall, there are no notable correlation between the previous year’s December and January’s historical returns for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction by January 31, 2025
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,150, below the December 2024’s closing price and January 2025’s opening.
The leading cryptocurrency now experiences significant short-term losses, bringing a bearish sentiment to its traders despite an impressive year-over-year performance.
Based on its historical returns and January 1’s opening price of $93,401, BTC could trade between $93,027 and $96,259 by January 31. The prediction projects Bitcoin’s price from the monthly open using the median and average historical returns if BTC keeps its pattern.
In the meantime, the crypto and stock trader Jelle, points out to Bitcoin testing strong support for the seventh time, suggesting a move upwards if the bulls are able to “defend it again,” in his words.
Yet, predicting Bitcoin price is hard, and even multi-year historical results can not guarantee conclusive targets. BTC price action will depend on supply and demand market dynamics that can be affected by micro and macroeconomics.
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