In anticipation of a potential bull market, investors often become engrossed in a narrative, sometimes overlooking the importance of considering alternative scenarios.
The 90% chance of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) approval in January, according to Bloomberg analysts, and the halving event have been major points of discussion within the crypto community. However, short-term pullback and a price correction of BTC are also possible scenarios to consider.
Bullish case
BTC has “left behind depression and disbelief to enter the next stage: Hope,” the second stage of the halving cycle according to renowned crypto investor CryptoCon.
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“After a long period of despair, [BTC] price starts to show some signs of making a turnaround,” he added on X.
Bitcoin’s protocol reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half approximately every four years, an event known as “halving.” This reduction in new supply tends to create upward pressure on the price as the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market slows down.
Following a halving, the reduced supply often leads to a bull market characterized by rising prices and increased investor interest.
Investors are currently in the ‘Hope’ phase of the cycle, according to the analyst. This means that people are starting to believe in Bitcoin again after long despair, and the price of Bitcoin has started to show signs of recovery, and it is now trading at fair value, he highlights. The next phase of the cycle is ‘Belief’.
This is when investors will start believing in Bitcoin, and the price will rise rapidly. This phase is expected to begin in June 2024 and last for about two years. The final phase of the cycle is ‘Red Year’, when the price of Bitcoin will reach its all-time high and then crash. This phase is expected to start in June 2026 and last for about one year, according to the expert.
Bearish case
The halving event has historically triggered a correction in Bitcoin’s price before rallying, highlights a crypto analyst AlanSantana in a TradingView post. As the prices rise, the market can become overextended, leading to a bear market where prices fall and investor sentiment becomes negative.
The expert also cautioned against the excessive hype surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETF, drawing parallels with past events like the Ethereum Merge. He suggested that intense hype often precedes bearish outcomes.
“They say billions and billions and billions and billions and more will be coming in due to these ETFs, really? Here is the thing, these ETFs, these “conventional trading vehicles” are not going to be selling Bitcoins to their clients; they are going to be selling shares, coupons, digits on a screen or what not. If they need Bitcoins, they are buying it now or bought them long ago to later use as back-up for their customers funds,”
wrote AlanSantana
Furthermore, Bitcoin is currently trading at $37,727, which is very close to the upper ‘Bollinger Band’, according to EliteTradingSignals, a prominent crypto trader. This indicates that the pair is overbought and may be due for a pullback.
The fact that the one-week timeframe (TF) is green is a counter-signal, which indicates that there is a chance that the price could continue to rise in the long term. However, the short-term overbought condition suggests that a pullback is more likely, wrote the expert.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
