While it is undeniable that, in 2026, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock has not only slowed down but has also corrected from the highs above $5 trillion it set on several occasions in the last year, ChatGPT estimates the time is not quite right to take a short position against the semiconductor giant.
Specifically, OpenAI’s flagship artificial intelligence (AI) platform estimated after analyzing the market that, at the ongoing stage of the supercycle, NVDA’s performance is contingent on the continued capital expenditures (CapEx) of its largest customers:
Nvidia is no longer primarily trading on quarterly GPU demand. It’s trading on the duration of the AI investment cycle.
Additionally, ChatGPT determined that CapEx plans for 2027 will prove critical for the blue-chip chipmaker and, under the circumstances, assessed that the likely best opportunity for shorting Nvidia stock will come in late October and early November of 2026 – once the company’s customers’ plans become more set in stone.
Notably, the AI warned that the sign that taking a short position is the right call will come in the form of either slower growth in planned CapEx or an outright decrease in planned expenditures – an outcome that is not guaranteed at press time on July 6, 2026.
Is now a good time to short Nvidia stock as Kyber racks get delayed
Elsewhere, the Monday, July 6, news that Nvidia Kyber racks for Vera Rubin are getting delayed might have already presented a shorting opportunity, though both the NVDA extended session performance and the long-term implications indicate it might eventually transform into a tailwind.
Specifically, AI boom skeptics have, for months, been pointing out that the rollout of new racks could present a major problem for many of the semiconductor giant’s customers due to likely incompatibility with the chips designed for the current-generation Oberon.
The setup would, therefore, require significant overhauls of data centers – many of which are yet to be built – if not the construction of entirely new facilities should their operators desire to upgrade to the latest equipment.
Thus, the Kyber delay could enable Nvidia’s customers to use at least a significant portion of the useful life of the hardware they have already purchased before committing to billions, if not trillions, in additional CapEx.
Considering the most recent developments in the technology sector – exemplified by the implied oversupply of AI compute capacity – it is doubtful if interest in the new racks would be sufficient to allow the world’s largest chipmaker to maintain its growth rate or even its current valuations just short of $5 trillion.
2026 Nvidia stock price performance
Meanwhile, despite slowing down, Nvidia stock remains 3.17% green year-to-date (YTD) and, despite the news of the next-generation racks delay, it has rallied 0.47% from $194.83 to $195.75 in the July 6 pre-market.
Notably, the relatively small 2026 upside and the significant correction from all-time highs (ATH) above $5.5 trillion reduce the odds of NVDA shares suffering a major crash without significant external bearish news, especially since its smaller competitors like AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) enjoyed three-figure rallies this year.
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