While the S&P 500 index has remained largely volatile throughout 2025, trading below 6,000, a market expert has emphasized that the benchmark still has the potential for a record high by year’s end.
According to James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, the benchmark index’s path to 7,000 by the end of 2025 remains firmly intact. This target represents an upside of about 20% from the last closing value of 5,802.
S&P 500’s technical path to 7,000
In an X post on May 25, Thorne reaffirmed his long-standing bullish target, pointing out that his prediction of a V-shaped recovery was initially met with skepticism. However, recent price action has validated his thesis.
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 supports Thorne’s call. After a sharp sell-off earlier this year, the index staged a classic V-shaped recovery, surging from lows near 5,400 to recent highs around 6,000.
This rebound was accompanied by rising volume, highlighting renewed investor confidence. Notably, the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) has provided support, with the index recently reclaiming this level alongside the 43-week EMA. This crossover and reclaim suggest a potential long-term trend shift.
The rapid price acceleration from recent lows further reinforces the reversal pattern, which has effectively dismissed fears of a prolonged bear market. The index’s close above key moving averages suggests the bullish trend is solidly in place.
Nevertheless, the 7,000 target for the index is highly ambitious, especially considering the stock market has been rattled by uncertainty stemming from trade tensions in recent months.
At the height of this uncertainty, the index briefly dropped below 5,000 but rebounded as the U.S. began easing the trade tariffs. However, renewed fears of a downturn have emerged after President Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) with new tariffs.
Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecast
Meanwhile, Wall Street has issued a range of forecasts for the benchmark. For instance, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to hit 6,500 in 2025, driven by anticipated 11% earnings growth and a 5% sales increase.
Bank of America has set a slightly higher target of 6,666, predicting stronger earnings growth of 13% and tailwinds from favorable U.S. economic policies. Leading the forecasts, Oppenheimer has projected a target of 7,100, driven by the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence.
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