The Bitcoin (BTC) block subsidy halving is a highly expected event by Bitcoin investors that happens approximately every four years (210,000 blocks).
Essentially, with the reduction of Bitcoin’s supply inflation by half, many analysts foresee a price increase for the leading cryptocurrency after the halving. These projections are all based on BTC’s past performance, from which analysts may have divergent opinions.
It is important to understand that past price action will not necessarily be repeated in the future, as many factors directly influence an elastic demand. Nevertheless, previous patterns could offer valuable insights for financial forecasts.
Bitcoin Archive price forecast at $220,000 per coin
Interestingly, Bitcoin Archive is forecasting Bitcoin will trade above the $220,000 mark over the next 18 months. Its forecast is based on Bitcoin’s last halving surge of six times the traded price 12 months after the reduction, crossed with BTC price at $37,183 by the post time.
However, the “6x” price surge in the previous halving was counted from the halving itself. This means that considering the price on November 21 could result in non-accurate projections. Bitcoin is volatile, and its price may change in the following months, which would directly affect this analysis.
Moreover, it is notable how the upward movement was reduced in each of the previous halvings related to the following. The 2012 halving caused a price increase of 94 times, while the 2016 halving saw around one-third of its ancestor for a pump three times lower.
Notably, the price variation from the last two halvings was even higher, resulting in a pump five times weaker.
ChatGPT-4 predicts Bitcoin price 12 months after the 2024 halving
All things considered, Finbold turned to ChatGPT-4 with the reported data and asked for a price forecast for the next 12 months after the 2024 halving. The Artificial Intelligence calculated the reduction factor among each year’s halving but could not find a reliable pattern to trace the next factor with the available information.
“There is no clear linear or simple exponential pattern from these two ratios, as they are not consistent. However, if we still would like to apply the more recent ratio to predict the next increase after the 2024 halving, we could use the latest ratio of reduction.”— ChatGPT-4
Considering the latest reduction ratio of a pump five times lower than its previous one, ChatGPT-4 expects Bitcoin’s price to multiply by 1.2 times after the 2024 halving. In particular, BTC could reach $44,619.60 in 18 months, using the same starting point of Bitcoin Archive at $37,183 per coin.
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